More generally, I think there is a difference between what would have been best for this analysis, and you might be right that point estimates would have been better, and what EA/longtermism should be aiming to have, which I think are more uncertain estimates in the shape of distributions.
More generally, I think there is a difference between what would have been best for this analysis, and you might be right that point estimates would have been better, and what EA/longtermism should be aiming to have, which I think are more uncertain estimates in the shape of distributions.