NunoSempere comments on An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

[NunoSempere]

Thanks Eli. I think I most disagree with you on the BOTEC point. Copying a paragraph from the text:

The key number here is the 5% improvement (from 50% to 55%). I’m getting this estimate mostly because I think that Allan Dafoe being the “Head of Long-term Strategy and Governance” at DeepMind seems like a promising signal. It nicely corresponds to the “having people in places to implement safety strategies” part of GovAI’s pathway to impact. But that estimation strategy is very crude, and I could imagine a better estimate ranging from <0.5% to more than 5%.

So I think that the handwavy estimate is still meaningful.