Unclear what the distribution represents: The distribution is basically a probability distribution over a probability (p(x-risk)), and it’s not obvious which uncertainties should be represented in the distribution and which are part of p(x-risk). e.g., If someone thinks that there’s an 80% chance that a research direction is misguided & useless and a 20% chance that it’s meaningful & relevant, should they just multiply their distribution by 0.2 (relative to research that is definitely in a meaningful & relevant direction), or should this give a more spread-out distribution with most of the probability mass near zero, or something in between?
Yeah, you can use a mixture distribution if you are thinking about the distribution of impact, like so, or you can take the mean of that mixture if you want to estimate the expected value, like so. Depends of what you are after.
Yeah, you can use a mixture distribution if you are thinking about the distribution of impact, like so, or you can take the mean of that mixture if you want to estimate the expected value, like so. Depends of what you are after.