Actually, that comment—and this spreadsheet—implied that my all-things-considered belief (not independent impression) is that there’s a ~0.5-1% chance of something like moral realism being true. But that doesn’t seem like the reasonable all-things-considered belief to have, given that it seems to me that:
The average credence in that claim from smart people who’ve spent a while thinking about it would be considerably higher
One useful proxy is the 2013 PhilPapers survey, which suggests that, out of some sample of philosophers, 56.4% subscribe to moral realism, 27.7% subscribe to moral anti-realism, and 15.9% were “other”
I’m deeply confused about this topic (which pushes against relying strongly on my own independent impression)
So maybe actually my all-things-considered belief is (or should be) closer to 50% (i.e., ~100 times as high as is suggested in this spreadsheet), and the 0.5% number is somewhere in-between my independent impression and my all-things-considered belief.
That might further help explain why it usually doesn’t feel super weird to me to kind-of “act on a moral realism wager”.
But yeah, I mostly feel pretty confused about what this topic even is, what I should think about it, and what I do think about it.
Actually, that comment—and this spreadsheet—implied that my all-things-considered belief (not independent impression) is that there’s a ~0.5-1% chance of something like moral realism being true. But that doesn’t seem like the reasonable all-things-considered belief to have, given that it seems to me that:
The average credence in that claim from smart people who’ve spent a while thinking about it would be considerably higher
One useful proxy is the 2013 PhilPapers survey, which suggests that, out of some sample of philosophers, 56.4% subscribe to moral realism, 27.7% subscribe to moral anti-realism, and 15.9% were “other”
I’m deeply confused about this topic (which pushes against relying strongly on my own independent impression)
So maybe actually my all-things-considered belief is (or should be) closer to 50% (i.e., ~100 times as high as is suggested in this spreadsheet), and the 0.5% number is somewhere in-between my independent impression and my all-things-considered belief.
That might further help explain why it usually doesn’t feel super weird to me to kind-of “act on a moral realism wager”.
But yeah, I mostly feel pretty confused about what this topic even is, what I should think about it, and what I do think about it.