I would be surprised if the 3:1 match applied to founders as well. Also, I think 20% of employees donating 20% of their equity within the next 4 years is very optimistic.
My guess is that donations from Antrhopic/âOpenAI will depend largely on what the founders decide to do with their money. Forbes estimates Altman and Daniela Amodei at ~$1B each, and Altman signed the Giving Pledge.
At Anthropicâs new valuation, each of its seven founders â [...] â are set to become billionaires. Forbes estimates that each cofounder will continue to hold more than 2% of Anthropicâs equity each, meaning their net worths are at least $1.2 billion.
I donât think Forbes numbers are particularly reliable, and I think that thereâs a significant chance that Anthropic and/âor OpenAI equity goes to 0; but in general, I expect founders to both have much more money than employees and be more inclined to donate significant parts of it (partly because of diminishing marginal returns of wealth)
Itâs a good point about how it applies to founders specificallyâunder the old terms (3:1 match up to 50% of stock grant) it would imply a maximum extra cost from Anthropic of 1.5x whatever the founders currently hold. Thatâs a lot!
Those bottom line figures doesnât seem crazy optimistic to me, thoughâlike, my guess is a bunch of folks at Anthropic expect AGI on the inside of 4 years, and Anthropic is the go to example of âfounded by EAsâ. I would take an even-odds bet that the total amount donated to charity out of Anthropic equity, excluding matches, is >$400m in 4 years time.
I would take an even-odds bet that the total amount donated to charity out of Anthropic equity, excluding matches, is >$400m in 4 years time.
If Anthropic doesnât lose >85% of its valuation (which can definitely happen) I would expect way more.
As mentioned above, each of its seven cofounders is likely to become worth >$500m, and I would expect many of them to donate significantly.
Anthropic is the go to example of âfounded by EAsâ
I find these kind of statements a bit weird. My sense is that it used to be true, but they donât necessarily identify themselves with the EA movement anymore: itâs never mentioned in interviews, and when asked by journalists they explicitly deny it.
I would be surprised if the 3:1 match applied to founders as well. Also, I think 20% of employees donating 20% of their equity within the next 4 years is very optimistic.
My guess is that donations from Antrhopic/âOpenAI will depend largely on what the founders decide to do with their money. Forbes estimates Altman and Daniela Amodei at ~$1B each, and Altman signed the Giving Pledge.
See also this article from Jan 8:
I donât think Forbes numbers are particularly reliable, and I think that thereâs a significant chance that Anthropic and/âor OpenAI equity goes to 0; but in general, I expect founders to both have much more money than employees and be more inclined to donate significant parts of it (partly because of diminishing marginal returns of wealth)
Itâs a good point about how it applies to founders specificallyâunder the old terms (3:1 match up to 50% of stock grant) it would imply a maximum extra cost from Anthropic of 1.5x whatever the founders currently hold. Thatâs a lot!
Those bottom line figures doesnât seem crazy optimistic to me, thoughâlike, my guess is a bunch of folks at Anthropic expect AGI on the inside of 4 years, and Anthropic is the go to example of âfounded by EAsâ. I would take an even-odds bet that the total amount donated to charity out of Anthropic equity, excluding matches, is >$400m in 4 years time.
If Anthropic doesnât lose >85% of its valuation (which can definitely happen) I would expect way more.
As mentioned above, each of its seven cofounders is likely to become worth >$500m, and I would expect many of them to donate significantly.
I find these kind of statements a bit weird. My sense is that it used to be true, but they donât necessarily identify themselves with the EA movement anymore: itâs never mentioned in interviews, and when asked by journalists they explicitly deny it.