I would be surprised if the 3:1 match applied to founders as well. Also, I think 20% of employees donating 20% of their equity within the next 4 years is very optimistic.
My guess is that donations from Antrhopic/OpenAI will depend largely on what the founders decide to do with their money. Forbes estimates Altman and Daniela Amodei at ~$1B each, and Altman signed the Giving Pledge.
At Anthropic’s new valuation, each of its seven founders — [...] — are set to become billionaires. Forbes estimates that each cofounder will continue to hold more than 2% of Anthropic’s equity each, meaning their net worths are at least $1.2 billion.
I don’t think Forbes numbers are particularly reliable, and I think that there’s a significant chance that Anthropic and/or OpenAI equity goes to 0; but in general, I expect founders to both have much more money than employees and be more inclined to donate significant parts of it (partly because of diminishing marginal returns of wealth)
It’s a good point about how it applies to founders specifically—under the old terms (3:1 match up to 50% of stock grant) it would imply a maximum extra cost from Anthropic of 1.5x whatever the founders currently hold. That’s a lot!
Those bottom line figures doesn’t seem crazy optimistic to me, though—like, my guess is a bunch of folks at Anthropic expect AGI on the inside of 4 years, and Anthropic is the go to example of “founded by EAs”. I would take an even-odds bet that the total amount donated to charity out of Anthropic equity, excluding matches, is >$400m in 4 years time.
I would take an even-odds bet that the total amount donated to charity out of Anthropic equity, excluding matches, is >$400m in 4 years time.
If Anthropic doesn’t lose >85% of its valuation (which can definitely happen) I would expect way more.
As mentioned above, each of its seven cofounders is likely to become worth >$500m, and I would expect many of them to donate significantly.
Anthropic is the go to example of “founded by EAs”
I find these kind of statements a bit weird. My sense is that it used to be true, but they don’t necessarily identify themselves with the EA movement anymore: it’s never mentioned in interviews, and when asked by journalists they explicitly deny it.
I would be surprised if the 3:1 match applied to founders as well. Also, I think 20% of employees donating 20% of their equity within the next 4 years is very optimistic.
My guess is that donations from Antrhopic/OpenAI will depend largely on what the founders decide to do with their money. Forbes estimates Altman and Daniela Amodei at ~$1B each, and Altman signed the Giving Pledge.
See also this article from Jan 8:
I don’t think Forbes numbers are particularly reliable, and I think that there’s a significant chance that Anthropic and/or OpenAI equity goes to 0; but in general, I expect founders to both have much more money than employees and be more inclined to donate significant parts of it (partly because of diminishing marginal returns of wealth)
It’s a good point about how it applies to founders specifically—under the old terms (3:1 match up to 50% of stock grant) it would imply a maximum extra cost from Anthropic of 1.5x whatever the founders currently hold. That’s a lot!
Those bottom line figures doesn’t seem crazy optimistic to me, though—like, my guess is a bunch of folks at Anthropic expect AGI on the inside of 4 years, and Anthropic is the go to example of “founded by EAs”. I would take an even-odds bet that the total amount donated to charity out of Anthropic equity, excluding matches, is >$400m in 4 years time.
If Anthropic doesn’t lose >85% of its valuation (which can definitely happen) I would expect way more.
As mentioned above, each of its seven cofounders is likely to become worth >$500m, and I would expect many of them to donate significantly.
I find these kind of statements a bit weird. My sense is that it used to be true, but they don’t necessarily identify themselves with the EA movement anymore: it’s never mentioned in interviews, and when asked by journalists they explicitly deny it.