Thank you—these are really helpful to help me understand. On the Sam Nolan piece especially quantifying uncertainty was one of the biggest critiques I had of the GiveWell model so I’m glad this has already been considered!
I guess that if one wants to red team effective altruist cost-effectiveness analyses that inform, e.g. giving decisions, non-public analyses may be relevant.
I’d say Michael Dickens and Sam Nolan are probably peak performance.
This is a classic, devastating methodological piece too.
Thank you—these are really helpful to help me understand. On the Sam Nolan piece especially quantifying uncertainty was one of the biggest critiques I had of the GiveWell model so I’m glad this has already been considered!
This has been considered by Sam, but it’s still a valid criticism of GiveWell’s models as they are now.
I would guess that other orgs besides GiveWell also have cost-effectiveness models/analyses.
Couldn’t find any public OP analyses on a cursory look
I guess that if one wants to red team effective altruist cost-effectiveness analyses that inform, e.g. giving decisions, non-public analyses may be relevant.