Donating to SBF’s appeal process may be the highest impact charity we have ever seen.
In randomized controlled trials from 2022, SBF had donated over 130 million dollars in less than a year, and a successful appeal would counterfactually create this benefit for 25 years. An expensive criminal trial in the US can cost as much as $15,000. Even if $15k increases the odds of winning the appeal by 0.1%, that is still an expected 217x amplification of every dollar donated.
The money amplified goes in to effective charities like GiveWell, so if we use GiveWell’s one life saved per $4,500 measure, donating to SBF’s appeal fund would save a life for every 20 dollars.
This is just a back of the napkin calculation, so my numbers might be off a little, but this seems to be the most effective charity by *many* orders of magnitude.
Does anyone know where he has been funding all his defense expenses from, and how much firepower is left there? If you’d merely be funging with his own assets, the Bank of Mom & Dad, or a D&O insurance policy, the giving would be rather ineffective.
He has to have been paying the bills, else it is unlikely new sentencing stage counsel would have signed up.
If trial counsel were somewhat competent, they already know what their best chances on appeal would be. Appeals are done on the record generated below, so the marginal returns to extra $ are likely minimal beyond a certain point.
Donating to SBF’s appeal process may be the highest impact charity we have ever seen.
In randomized controlled trials from 2022, SBF had donated over 130 million dollars in less than a year, and a successful appeal would counterfactually create this benefit for 25 years. An expensive criminal trial in the US can cost as much as $15,000. Even if $15k increases the odds of winning the appeal by 0.1%, that is still an expected 217x amplification of every dollar donated.
The money amplified goes in to effective charities like GiveWell, so if we use GiveWell’s one life saved per $4,500 measure, donating to SBF’s appeal fund would save a life for every 20 dollars.
This is just a back of the napkin calculation, so my numbers might be off a little, but this seems to be the most effective charity by *many* orders of magnitude.
Does anyone know where he has been funding all his defense expenses from, and how much firepower is left there? If you’d merely be funging with his own assets, the Bank of Mom & Dad, or a D&O insurance policy, the giving would be rather ineffective.
He has to have been paying the bills, else it is unlikely new sentencing stage counsel would have signed up.
If trial counsel were somewhat competent, they already know what their best chances on appeal would be. Appeals are done on the record generated below, so the marginal returns to extra $ are likely minimal beyond a certain point.