This is a great post, but I would like to present a counterargument to the claim that the extent of the funding did not matter due to scope neglect. Specifically, I think Flynn’s race could suggest there are limits to the amount one organisation can spend on primary races relative to other ones (I agree that absolute numbers are unlikely to matter). I have two reasons for thinking that the relative levels of spending could have mattered. Firstly, it does seem highly unusual for a well-funded campaign to get all its funding from just one donor, which may have made it easier to land attacks relating to SBF. Secondly, this race becoming the most expensive primary in the country grabbed the attention of national media outlets and possibly political groups (e.g., the opposition PAC), potentially helping rally support around viable opponents. Finally, I will note that my argument is reasoning from one unusual data point and thus am not certain of it myself.
Yes, I strongly agree with this. Almost all money in politics goes to establishing and maintaining narratives about the candidates, but money becomes a problem rather than a help in politics when the supporter and candidate allow the money itself to become the narrative. This is especially true in a Democratic primary.
I was going to make essentially the same point. I may have too much political experience for my emotional reaction to be worth anything in judging how a normal voter would feel, but to me, half or more of the money coming from one person feels like a big deal. Less than half feels like something that would receive criticism but that I would generally write it off as sour grapes.
The fact that it’s crypto money specifically probably matters a lot. The partisan valence of crypto among average people is pretty right-wing because of bitcoiners’ libertarian fantasies. In a more rational world that wouldn’t affect perceptions of crypto generally but in this world it does. This may be too expensive to be worth it, but if SBF is really going to be spending a lot of money on Democratic primaries he may want to give some consideration to how to rehabilitate the image of non-BTC cryptocurrencies among Dem voters.
The second point implies more of a bright line than scalar dynamic, which seems consistent with scope insensitivity over lower donation amounts. That is, we might expect scope insensitivity to equalize the perception of $1m and $5m dollars, but once you hit $10m, then you attract negative media coverage. If we restrict ourselves to donation sizes that allow us to fly under the radar of national media outlets, then the scope insensitivity argument may still bite.
This is a great post, but I would like to present a counterargument to the claim that the extent of the funding did not matter due to scope neglect. Specifically, I think Flynn’s race could suggest there are limits to the amount one organisation can spend on primary races relative to other ones (I agree that absolute numbers are unlikely to matter). I have two reasons for thinking that the relative levels of spending could have mattered. Firstly, it does seem highly unusual for a well-funded campaign to get all its funding from just one donor, which may have made it easier to land attacks relating to SBF. Secondly, this race becoming the most expensive primary in the country grabbed the attention of national media outlets and possibly political groups (e.g., the opposition PAC), potentially helping rally support around viable opponents. Finally, I will note that my argument is reasoning from one unusual data point and thus am not certain of it myself.
Yes, I strongly agree with this. Almost all money in politics goes to establishing and maintaining narratives about the candidates, but money becomes a problem rather than a help in politics when the supporter and candidate allow the money itself to become the narrative. This is especially true in a Democratic primary.
I was going to make essentially the same point. I may have too much political experience for my emotional reaction to be worth anything in judging how a normal voter would feel, but to me, half or more of the money coming from one person feels like a big deal. Less than half feels like something that would receive criticism but that I would generally write it off as sour grapes.
The fact that it’s crypto money specifically probably matters a lot. The partisan valence of crypto among average people is pretty right-wing because of bitcoiners’ libertarian fantasies. In a more rational world that wouldn’t affect perceptions of crypto generally but in this world it does. This may be too expensive to be worth it, but if SBF is really going to be spending a lot of money on Democratic primaries he may want to give some consideration to how to rehabilitate the image of non-BTC cryptocurrencies among Dem voters.
The second point implies more of a bright line than scalar dynamic, which seems consistent with scope insensitivity over lower donation amounts. That is, we might expect scope insensitivity to equalize the perception of $1m and $5m dollars, but once you hit $10m, then you attract negative media coverage. If we restrict ourselves to donation sizes that allow us to fly under the radar of national media outlets, then the scope insensitivity argument may still bite.