It might be cheaper than this because perhaps most of the value was created by some small proportion of the money. Perhaps if you spent 60 million across 60 races, you’d expect more than 1 pro pandemic preparedness seat.
It might be more costly than this because metaculus was miscalibrated. I find this a little frustrating because “maybe the well-calibrated forecasters were wrong” is an exceptionally cheap attack against the best forecasting we had ahead of time. That said, we’ll find out in future races anyway.
On balance I reckon the first bullet point dominates the second, so I reckon this is an overestimate of costs. It probably costs less than $60 mil to campaign on expectation.
So I’m hearing the following:
It might be cheaper than this because perhaps most of the value was created by some small proportion of the money. Perhaps if you spent 60 million across 60 races, you’d expect more than 1 pro pandemic preparedness seat.
It might be more costly than this because metaculus was miscalibrated. I find this a little frustrating because “maybe the well-calibrated forecasters were wrong” is an exceptionally cheap attack against the best forecasting we had ahead of time. That said, we’ll find out in future races anyway.
On balance I reckon the first bullet point dominates the second, so I reckon this is an overestimate of costs. It probably costs less than $60 mil to campaign on expectation.
What cost effectiveness guesses would you give?