Yglesias is more the expert here, but I would question whether boldpac explains Carrick being outvoted by 2x. Also, presumably there are only like 50 competitive primaries each cycle (with new seat, no incumbent), and many of them will include an opponent who is as strong as Salinas for one reason or another.
Yglesias argues in a different thread that Salinas was more competitive than expected for fairly arbitrary reasons.
Yglesias is more the expert here, but I would question whether boldpac explains Carrick being outvoted by 2x. Also, presumably there are only like 50 competitive primaries each cycle (with new seat, no incumbent), and many of them will include an opponent who is as strong as Salinas for one reason or another.