Another consideration that I think Ajeya thought about but didn’t go into the report is that anthropic considerations might mean that our planet’s evolutionary path is unusually short compared to arbitrarily selected evolutionary paths. Which means using our specific evolutionary path as an anchor underestimates timelines.
(Of course there are many factors that suggest the evolutionary anchor is an overestimate as well).
Another consideration that I think Ajeya thought about but didn’t go into the report is that anthropic considerations might mean that our planet’s evolutionary path is unusually short compared to arbitrarily selected evolutionary paths. Which means using our specific evolutionary path as an anchor underestimates timelines.
(Of course there are many factors that suggest the evolutionary anchor is an overestimate as well).