I’m mostly uninformed on this topic, but this all sounds very plausible to me — more plausible than very hindsight-bias-y accounts along the lines of “I didn’t guess this in advance, but of course it should have been obvious”.
I do want to note that “we should be wary of hindsight, and not assume this was obvious” is compatible with “we should give extra epistemic credit to people who did in fact correctly call this, especially insofar as they gave good supporting arguments at the time”.
Even if this was difficult to predict, we should expect there to have been some hints out there that people could pick up on, and to some degree we should update in favor of the heuristics that paid attention to those hints.
I’m mostly uninformed on this topic, but this all sounds very plausible to me — more plausible than very hindsight-bias-y accounts along the lines of “I didn’t guess this in advance, but of course it should have been obvious”.
I do want to note that “we should be wary of hindsight, and not assume this was obvious” is compatible with “we should give extra epistemic credit to people who did in fact correctly call this, especially insofar as they gave good supporting arguments at the time”.
Even if this was difficult to predict, we should expect there to have been some hints out there that people could pick up on, and to some degree we should update in favor of the heuristics that paid attention to those hints.