Hey, good questions, thanks for cross-posting this from the EA Discord :)
OpenPhil is included in the model because the EA movement starts out with some capital. But convincing additional billionaires (or “earning to give” in the sense of “trying to become a billionaire to donate the billions to charity”) is not modelled.
Also, the model does not (yet) include research, which is also part of what OpenPhil does.
One-time big donors could be modelled by increasing the initial capital, but this is kind of a kludge.
Also, once that small model exists, we can reason in ways like: The small model recommends doing direct work or movement building over earning to give, in the limit. Adding billionaires to the mix doesn’t seem like it would change that property (unless “earning to give” includes “taking a shot at becoming a billionaire”.)
Hey, good questions, thanks for cross-posting this from the EA Discord :)
OpenPhil is included in the model because the EA movement starts out with some capital. But convincing additional billionaires (or “earning to give” in the sense of “trying to become a billionaire to donate the billions to charity”) is not modelled.
Also, the model does not (yet) include research, which is also part of what OpenPhil does.
One-time big donors could be modelled by increasing the initial capital, but this is kind of a kludge.
Also, once that small model exists, we can reason in ways like: The small model recommends doing direct work or movement building over earning to give, in the limit. Adding billionaires to the mix doesn’t seem like it would change that property (unless “earning to give” includes “taking a shot at becoming a billionaire”.)