That’s what I thought, too. Hiring the top 30 superforecasters seems much less scalable than a big prediction market like you describe it, where becoming a superforecaster suddenly would become a valid career. I wonder if it’s not too far off to expect some more technocratic government to set one up at some point in the coming years. I wonder what the OT and others here would think about lobbying for predictions markets from an EA perspective.
That’s what I thought, too. Hiring the top 30 superforecasters seems much less scalable than a big prediction market like you describe it, where becoming a superforecaster suddenly would become a valid career. I wonder if it’s not too far off to expect some more technocratic government to set one up at some point in the coming years. I wonder what the OT and others here would think about lobbying for predictions markets from an EA perspective.