So let’s assume that teams of superforecasters with extremized predictions can do significantly better than any other mechanism of prediction that we’ve thought of, including prediction markets as they’ve existed so far. If so, then with prediction markets of sufficiently high volume and liquidity (just for the sake of argument, imagine prediction markets on the scale of the NYSE today), we would expect firms to crop up that would identify superforecasters, train them, and optimize for exactly how much to extremize their predictions (as well as iterating on this basic formula). These superforecaster firms would come to dominate the prediction markets (we’d eventually wind up with companies that were like the equivalent of goldman sachs but for prediction markets), and the prediction markets would be better than any other method of prediction. Of course, we’re a LONG way away from having prediction markets like that, but I think this at least shows the theoretical potential of large scale prediction markets.
That’s what I thought, too. Hiring the top 30 superforecasters seems much less scalable than a big prediction market like you describe it, where becoming a superforecaster suddenly would become a valid career. I wonder if it’s not too far off to expect some more technocratic government to set one up at some point in the coming years. I wonder what the OT and others here would think about lobbying for predictions markets from an EA perspective.
So let’s assume that teams of superforecasters with extremized predictions can do significantly better than any other mechanism of prediction that we’ve thought of, including prediction markets as they’ve existed so far. If so, then with prediction markets of sufficiently high volume and liquidity (just for the sake of argument, imagine prediction markets on the scale of the NYSE today), we would expect firms to crop up that would identify superforecasters, train them, and optimize for exactly how much to extremize their predictions (as well as iterating on this basic formula). These superforecaster firms would come to dominate the prediction markets (we’d eventually wind up with companies that were like the equivalent of goldman sachs but for prediction markets), and the prediction markets would be better than any other method of prediction. Of course, we’re a LONG way away from having prediction markets like that, but I think this at least shows the theoretical potential of large scale prediction markets.
That’s what I thought, too. Hiring the top 30 superforecasters seems much less scalable than a big prediction market like you describe it, where becoming a superforecaster suddenly would become a valid career. I wonder if it’s not too far off to expect some more technocratic government to set one up at some point in the coming years. I wonder what the OT and others here would think about lobbying for predictions markets from an EA perspective.