I find it questionable whether blatant attempts at voter manipulation through prediction markets are worth the cost. This is a big price to pay even if prediction markets did a bit better than polls or pundits.
Robin’s position is that manipulators can actually improve the accuracy of prediction markets, by increasing the rewards to informed trading. On this view, the possibility of market manipulation is not in itself a consideration that favors non-market alternatives, such as polls or pundits.
Interesting! I am trading off accuracy with outside world manipulation in that argument, since accuracy isn’t actually the main end goal I care about (but ‘good done in the world’ for which better forecasts of the future would be pretty useful).
Feel free to ignore if you don’t think this is sufficiently important, but I don’t understand the contrast you draw between accuracy and outside world manipulation. I thought manipulation of prediction markets was concerning precisely because it reduces their accuracy. Assuming you accept Robin’s point that manipulation increases accuracy on balance, what’s your residual concern?
Robin’s position is that manipulators can actually improve the accuracy of prediction markets, by increasing the rewards to informed trading. On this view, the possibility of market manipulation is not in itself a consideration that favors non-market alternatives, such as polls or pundits.
Interesting! I am trading off accuracy with outside world manipulation in that argument, since accuracy isn’t actually the main end goal I care about (but ‘good done in the world’ for which better forecasts of the future would be pretty useful).
Feel free to ignore if you don’t think this is sufficiently important, but I don’t understand the contrast you draw between accuracy and outside world manipulation. I thought manipulation of prediction markets was concerning precisely because it reduces their accuracy. Assuming you accept Robin’s point that manipulation increases accuracy on balance, what’s your residual concern?