Interesting! I am trading off accuracy with outside world manipulation in that argument, since accuracy isn’t actually the main end goal I care about (but ‘good done in the world’ for which better forecasts of the future would be pretty useful).
Feel free to ignore if you don’t think this is sufficiently important, but I don’t understand the contrast you draw between accuracy and outside world manipulation. I thought manipulation of prediction markets was concerning precisely because it reduces their accuracy. Assuming you accept Robin’s point that manipulation increases accuracy on balance, what’s your residual concern?
Interesting! I am trading off accuracy with outside world manipulation in that argument, since accuracy isn’t actually the main end goal I care about (but ‘good done in the world’ for which better forecasts of the future would be pretty useful).
Feel free to ignore if you don’t think this is sufficiently important, but I don’t understand the contrast you draw between accuracy and outside world manipulation. I thought manipulation of prediction markets was concerning precisely because it reduces their accuracy. Assuming you accept Robin’s point that manipulation increases accuracy on balance, what’s your residual concern?