Tipler doesnât give a quantitative estimate, so maybe that shouldnât count.
Leslie and Bostromâs estimates themselves are arguably less pessimistic than Rees, in the sense that their lower bounds for the risk level are lower
But I include their estimates here anyway since itâs possible that their overall distribution would be more pessimistic, and because Reesâ estimate is not necessarily about existential catastrophe (since it could include other ways in which âour present civilisationâ doesnât âsurviveâ)
Leslie and Bostromâs estimates arenât as near-term as Reesâ estimate
So Tarsneyâs claim is reasonable on this front; Iâm just adding some extra info.
There are also some more pessimistic estimates in sources that arenât academic but do seem similarly worth paying attention to to Reesâ estimate; see my database.
tl;dr Iâm aware of 1-3 other things that might count as more pessimistic estimates of near-term existential risk in the academic literature.
Specifically:
Frank Tipler wrote âPersonally, I now think we humans will be wiped out this centuryâ
John Leslie estimated the risk of extinction over the next five centuries as at or above 30%.
Nick Bostrom estimates the odds that âexistential disaster will do us inâ at some point as probably at or above 25%.
For further details and sources, see my Database of existential risk estimates (or similar) (see here for the accompanying post).
But:
Tipler doesnât give a quantitative estimate, so maybe that shouldnât count.
Leslie and Bostromâs estimates themselves are arguably less pessimistic than Rees, in the sense that their lower bounds for the risk level are lower
But I include their estimates here anyway since itâs possible that their overall distribution would be more pessimistic, and because Reesâ estimate is not necessarily about existential catastrophe (since it could include other ways in which âour present civilisationâ doesnât âsurviveâ)
Leslie and Bostromâs estimates arenât as near-term as Reesâ estimate
So Tarsneyâs claim is reasonable on this front; Iâm just adding some extra info.
There are also some more pessimistic estimates in sources that arenât academic but do seem similarly worth paying attention to to Reesâ estimate; see my database.