Having spoken to Marcus about his goals, I ended up developing 3 questions about the future of HIA for Metaculus. It would be great to have some EAF users come and post predictions and reasoning on them!
How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?
What fraction of athletes who take the HIA pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?
How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?
Having spoken to Marcus about his goals, I ended up developing 3 questions about the future of HIA for Metaculus. It would be great to have some EAF users come and post predictions and reasoning on them!
How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?
What fraction of athletes who take the HIA pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?
How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?