1. I think parts of the argument that you made were only part of a socialist critique, especially the part about donations doing more harm than good because they perpetuate a capitalist system. If you’re Pritchett, you want to perpetuate the capitalist system! So, he wouldn’t accept your second main claim. So, I think it best to distinguish your critique from other forms of the systemic chaneg critique.
2. I agree that the terrain should be move on to these type of debates, and agree that this is a flaw in current EA practice. Note that GiveWell is moving in the direction of assessing policy.
I often find that most people who criticise the prevailing “neoliberal order” can’t accurately state the views in economics that they are criticising, let alone criticise them persuasively. I’m not saying this characterises you, but that is what I tend to find. (side note: The critique of capitalism in Radical Markets is different because it (a) knows the literature (b) has some compelling policy suggestions that fit in with the findings of economics.)
I do think there is straightforward empirical data strongly supporting the benefits of capitalism viz. the big fact about human history that I mentioned in my first comment: progress since 1950 has been greater than all prior human history put together. It is true that true socialism might have done better than this, but it does seem unlikely. Why think it would be better than something this good, without any evidence? Socialist states—those with collective ownership of property—have had periods of growth but tend to have flared out, failed to allocate goods well, or had colossal humanitarian costs. While we can’t test the counterfactual, this makes me think that it is very unlikely (<1% chance) that socialism would have done better.
3. I see your point that the numbers could come out in your favour, and thanks for the clarification re the quantiative model. I didn’t really see any argument for the view that donations to charity had any causal role in increasing support for NOYB norms. If you think it has some effect, then depending on what empirical assumptions you put in about the value of socialism, you could get that answer (though see my doubts about these empirical assumptions).
I don’t see any conflict between using quantitative models and assessing systemic change stuff. Open Phil does this, and I did it for the climate charities I looked at in my Founders Pledge climate report. The argument is: quantitative models are often unrealistic but are usually better than intuition due to protecting against bias and clarifying assumptions. It’s better to pull numbers out of your arse than to pull a decision out of your arse.
4. Yes that makes sense, but international democracy could also choose policies that are bad for the poor or for achieving equality. International democracy could e.g. choose to give fewer resources to certain groups due to majority preference, or to criminalise innocuous behaviour such as selling enjoyable drugs. Where do socialists stand on potential international democracy vs poverty/equality trade-offs?
Hi, thanks for this sensible response.
1. I think parts of the argument that you made were only part of a socialist critique, especially the part about donations doing more harm than good because they perpetuate a capitalist system. If you’re Pritchett, you want to perpetuate the capitalist system! So, he wouldn’t accept your second main claim. So, I think it best to distinguish your critique from other forms of the systemic chaneg critique.
2. I agree that the terrain should be move on to these type of debates, and agree that this is a flaw in current EA practice. Note that GiveWell is moving in the direction of assessing policy.
I often find that most people who criticise the prevailing “neoliberal order” can’t accurately state the views in economics that they are criticising, let alone criticise them persuasively. I’m not saying this characterises you, but that is what I tend to find. (side note: The critique of capitalism in Radical Markets is different because it (a) knows the literature (b) has some compelling policy suggestions that fit in with the findings of economics.)
I do think there is straightforward empirical data strongly supporting the benefits of capitalism viz. the big fact about human history that I mentioned in my first comment: progress since 1950 has been greater than all prior human history put together. It is true that true socialism might have done better than this, but it does seem unlikely. Why think it would be better than something this good, without any evidence? Socialist states—those with collective ownership of property—have had periods of growth but tend to have flared out, failed to allocate goods well, or had colossal humanitarian costs. While we can’t test the counterfactual, this makes me think that it is very unlikely (<1% chance) that socialism would have done better.
3. I see your point that the numbers could come out in your favour, and thanks for the clarification re the quantiative model. I didn’t really see any argument for the view that donations to charity had any causal role in increasing support for NOYB norms. If you think it has some effect, then depending on what empirical assumptions you put in about the value of socialism, you could get that answer (though see my doubts about these empirical assumptions).
I don’t see any conflict between using quantitative models and assessing systemic change stuff. Open Phil does this, and I did it for the climate charities I looked at in my Founders Pledge climate report. The argument is: quantitative models are often unrealistic but are usually better than intuition due to protecting against bias and clarifying assumptions. It’s better to pull numbers out of your arse than to pull a decision out of your arse.
4. Yes that makes sense, but international democracy could also choose policies that are bad for the poor or for achieving equality. International democracy could e.g. choose to give fewer resources to certain groups due to majority preference, or to criminalise innocuous behaviour such as selling enjoyable drugs. Where do socialists stand on potential international democracy vs poverty/equality trade-offs?