Many EAs also believe that this may be “the most important century”, and that many pivotal decisions (e.g. around AI) will happen within the next few years or decades rather than being just as influenceable in 2080 or so.
I ran the numbers based on this exact population distribution and count. It’s a relatively small population and I think it misrepresents the world population of charitable people, but in any event, if you have <2k people who skew young, you’d want to ease into the shift towards donating at death to cover the first few decades, but once the pump is primed you’ll be able to go full death and outpace.
Simulated Giving Strategy for Young-Skewed Altruist Population
We modeled 1,806 altruists with a young-skewed age distribution (mostly 20-40). The strategy
combines modest lifetime giving with significant giving at death:
- Early career (20-40): donate ~7.5% of income.
- Mid career (40-60): donate ~2.5% of income.
- At death: donate 50% of net worth.
Results over 100 years (in billions USD):
Decade Income Donations Death Donations Pooled Wealth
10 0.07 0.05 0.95
20 0.05 0.14 3.29
30 0.03 0.24 7.74
40 0.02 0.47 15.13
50 0.02 0.60 27.09
60 0.02 3.25 41.20
70 0.03 6.90 51.47
80 0.04 5.40 58.51
90 0.04 2.36 66.34
100 0.03 2.57 75.04
Key insights:
- Income donations provide immediate but modest support.
- Death donations grow over time and ultimately surpass income-based giving.
- The pooled wealth of the population continues to grow, providing future security and flexibility.A hybrid strategy balances urgent needs today and maximizes long-term impact.
That may be a hurdle for sure and may make my model idealistic. I wonder how charitable the 45 and overs are regardless of whether they identify as EA or not
EAs are a relatively young population, with a lot of years before most will die naturally. From the EA Survey: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z4Wxd2dnTqDmFZrej/ea-survey-2024-demographics#Age
Many EAs also believe that this may be “the most important century”, and that many pivotal decisions (e.g. around AI) will happen within the next few years or decades rather than being just as influenceable in 2080 or so.
I ran the numbers based on this exact population distribution and count. It’s a relatively small population and I think it misrepresents the world population of charitable people, but in any event, if you have <2k people who skew young, you’d want to ease into the shift towards donating at death to cover the first few decades, but once the pump is primed you’ll be able to go full death and outpace.
Simulated Giving Strategy for Young-Skewed Altruist Population
We modeled 1,806 altruists with a young-skewed age distribution (mostly 20-40). The strategy
combines modest lifetime giving with significant giving at death:
- Early career (20-40): donate ~7.5% of income.
- Mid career (40-60): donate ~2.5% of income.
- At death: donate 50% of net worth.
Results over 100 years (in billions USD):
Decade Income Donations Death Donations Pooled Wealth
10 0.07 0.05 0.95
20 0.05 0.14 3.29
30 0.03 0.24 7.74
40 0.02 0.47 15.13
50 0.02 0.60 27.09
60 0.02 3.25 41.20
70 0.03 6.90 51.47
80 0.04 5.40 58.51
90 0.04 2.36 66.34
100 0.03 2.57 75.04
Key insights:
- Income donations provide immediate but modest support.
- Death donations grow over time and ultimately surpass income-based giving.
- The pooled wealth of the population continues to grow, providing future security and flexibility.A hybrid strategy balances urgent needs today and maximizes long-term impact.
That may be a hurdle for sure and may make my model idealistic. I wonder how charitable the 45 and overs are regardless of whether they identify as EA or not