My question is whether there is an implication here that directed panspermia is a warranted biotic hedge during The Precipice phase, perhaps prepared now and only acted on if existential catastrophe odds increase. If we make it to The Long Reflection, I’m in total agreement that we do not rapidly engage in directed panspermia. However, for the sake of increasing the universe’s chance of having some intelligent flourishing, perhaps a biotic hedge should at least be prepare now, to be executed when things look especially dire. [emphasis added]
I’d definitely much prefer that approach to just aiming for actually implementing directed panspermia ASAP. Though I’m still very unsure whether directed panspermia would even be good in expectation, and doubt it should be near the top of a longtermist’s list of priorities, for reasons given in my main answer.
I just wanted to highlight that passage because I think that this relates to a general category of (or approach to) x-risk intervention which I think we might call “Developing, but not deploying, drastic backup plans”, or just “Drastic Plan Bs”. (Or, to be nerdier, “Preparing saving throws”.)
I noticed that as a general category of intervention when reading endnote 92 in Chapter 4 of the Precipice:
Using geoengineering as a last resort could lower overall existential risk even if the technique is more risky than climate change itself. This is because we could adopt the strategy of only deploying it in the unlikely case where climate change is much worse than currently expected, giving is a second roll of the dice.
[Ord gives a simple numerical example]
The key is waiting for a situation when the risk of using geoengineering is appreciably lower than the risk of not using it. A similar strategy may be applicable for other kinds of existential risk too.
I’d be interested in someone naming this general approach, exploring the general pros and cons of this approach, and exploring examples of this approach.
I’d definitely much prefer that approach to just aiming for actually implementing directed panspermia ASAP. Though I’m still very unsure whether directed panspermia would even be good in expectation, and doubt it should be near the top of a longtermist’s list of priorities, for reasons given in my main answer.
I just wanted to highlight that passage because I think that this relates to a general category of (or approach to) x-risk intervention which I think we might call “Developing, but not deploying, drastic backup plans”, or just “Drastic Plan Bs”. (Or, to be nerdier, “Preparing saving throws”.)
I noticed that as a general category of intervention when reading endnote 92 in Chapter 4 of the Precipice:
I’d be interested in someone naming this general approach, exploring the general pros and cons of this approach, and exploring examples of this approach.