Thanks so much for the reply! Yep 6.3 million kids rather than 1.5 million would fix the issue that makes sense ;).
In my defence, a straightforward reading of the back-check article does seem to me to be cite 1.5 million as the number “For New Incentives, our best guess is that our $120 million in grants averted 27,000 deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases—about 60% higher than our initial estimate of 17,000 deaths. Our estimate of cost-effectiveness increased because costs per child dropped significantly as New Incentives expanded from serving 70,000 children to serving 1.5 million children.” I don’t think the 6.3 million number is on the review?
I should have picked up though that 120 million dollars would incentivize more than 1.5 million kids.…
I had a good time learning more about the ins and outs of vaccinatable diseases so far from time wasted on my part ;).
As a smaller point I’m interested in the 0.75 extra lives saved you add for every 1 vaccinatable lives saved that you add as well. I know the vaccine effect seems to save lives from other causes as well (although most research on that is pretty old), but I’m not sure where those extra lives saved would come from within the GBD bucket—its an interesting one!
Thanks for noting that section of the post could have been clearer! We’ve edited the article to clarify that New Incentives went from serving 70,000 to 1.5 million children per year.
We agree that the extra lives saved (“indirect deaths” in our analysis) is an interesting question. Both the magnitude of the adjustment and the exact mechanisms (i.e., which other causes those deaths are coming from in the GBD bucket) are major sources of uncertainty in our model, and we don’t currently specify what other deaths are being averted through vaccination in our analysis. We may follow up with a post to share more about our work on indirect deaths in the future.
Thanks so much for the reply! Yep 6.3 million kids rather than 1.5 million would fix the issue that makes sense ;).
In my defence, a straightforward reading of the back-check article does seem to me to be cite 1.5 million as the number “For New Incentives, our best guess is that our $120 million in grants averted 27,000 deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases—about 60% higher than our initial estimate of 17,000 deaths. Our estimate of cost-effectiveness increased because costs per child dropped significantly as New Incentives expanded from serving 70,000 children to serving 1.5 million children.” I don’t think the 6.3 million number is on the review?
I should have picked up though that 120 million dollars would incentivize more than 1.5 million kids.…
I had a good time learning more about the ins and outs of vaccinatable diseases so far from time wasted on my part ;).
As a smaller point I’m interested in the 0.75 extra lives saved you add for every 1 vaccinatable lives saved that you add as well. I know the vaccine effect seems to save lives from other causes as well (although most research on that is pretty old), but I’m not sure where those extra lives saved would come from within the GBD bucket—its an interesting one!
Hi Nick,
Thanks for noting that section of the post could have been clearer! We’ve edited the article to clarify that New Incentives went from serving 70,000 to 1.5 million children per year.
We agree that the extra lives saved (“indirect deaths” in our analysis) is an interesting question. Both the magnitude of the adjustment and the exact mechanisms (i.e., which other causes those deaths are coming from in the GBD bucket) are major sources of uncertainty in our model, and we don’t currently specify what other deaths are being averted through vaccination in our analysis. We may follow up with a post to share more about our work on indirect deaths in the future.
Thanks again for the feedback!