When I first discussed Ng (1995)’s mathematical proof with some friends in 2006, they said they didn’t find it very convincing because it’s too speculative and not very biologically realistic. Other people since then have said the same, and I agree. I’ve cited it on occasion, but I’ve never considered the mathematical result of that particular model to be more than an extremely weak argument for the predominance of suffering.
I think the intuition underlying the argument—that most offspring die not long after birth—is one of the reasons many people believe wild-animal suffering predominates. It certainly might be the case that this intuition is misguided, such as based on what you said: “when the probability of suffering increases, the severity of suffering should decrease.” I have an article that also discusses theoretical reasons why shorter-lived animals and animals who are less likely to ever reproduce may not feel as much pain or fear as we would from the same kinds of injuries.
While I think these kinds of arguments are interesting, I give them relatively low epistemic weight because they’re so theoretical. I think the best way to assess the net hedonic balance of wild animals is to watch videos and read about their lives, seeing what kinds of emotions they display, and then come up with our own subjective opinions about how much pain and pleasure they feel. This method is biased by anthropomorphism, but it’s at least somewhat more anchored to reality than simple theoretical models. We could try to combat anthropomorphism a bit by learning more about how other animals make tradeoffs between combinations of bad and good things, and so on.
For me, it will always remain obvious that suffering dominates in nature because I believe extreme, unbearable suffering can’t be outweighed by other organism-moments experiencing pleasure. In general, I think most of the disagreement about nature’s net hedonic balance comes down to differences in moral values rather than disagreements about facts. But yes, it remains useful to improve our frameworks for thinking about this topic, as you’re helping to do. :)
Thanks Brian. I agree that this sort of argument deserves relatively low epistemic weight and that the argument is very speculative, as I tried to emphasize in the paper but am worried that not everybody picked up. I’m definitely more uncertain than you on the topic, perhaps because of different views on suffering. Thanks for the comment.
I’m thankful for this discussion. Previously, I was under the impression that most people who looked deeply into WAS concluded that there was definitely net suffering. However, now it’s clear to me this isn’t the case.
Brian—I’m wondering if you’ve explained elsewhere exactly what you mean by “extreme, unbearable suffering can’t be outweighed by other organism-moments experiencing pleasure.” Is this an expression of negative utilitarianism, or just the empirical claim that current organisms have greater suffering capacity than pleasure capacity?
I am a total hedonic utilitarian, and not negative leaning at all, so I’m wondering what conclusion this philosophical position would lead to, given all the empirical considerations.
You’re right that communication on this topic hasn’t always been the most clear. :)
This section of my reply to Michael Plant helps explain my view on those questions. I think assessments of the intensities of pain and pleasure necessarily involve significant normative judgment calls, unless you define pain and pleasure in a sufficiently concrete way that it becomes a factual matter. (But that begs the question of what concrete definition is the right one to choose.)
I guess most people who aim to quantify pleasure and pain don’t choose numbers such that unbearable suffering outweighs any amount of pleasure, so the statement you quoted could be said to be mainly about my negative-utilitarian values (though I would say that a view that pleasure can outweigh unbearable suffering is ultimately a statement about someone’s non-negative-utilitarian values).
I think this is a good place to start, although not written by Brian:
There’s ongoing sickening cruelty: violent child pornography, chickens are boiled alive, and so on. We should help these victims and prevent such suffering, rather than focus on ensuring that many individuals come into existence in the future. When spending resources on increasing the number of beings instead of preventing extreme suffering, one is essentially saying to the victims: “I could have helped you, but I didn’t, because I think it’s more important that individuals are brought into existence. Sorry.” (See this essay for a longer case for suffering-focused ethics.)
Congrats on fixing the error!
When I first discussed Ng (1995)’s mathematical proof with some friends in 2006, they said they didn’t find it very convincing because it’s too speculative and not very biologically realistic. Other people since then have said the same, and I agree. I’ve cited it on occasion, but I’ve never considered the mathematical result of that particular model to be more than an extremely weak argument for the predominance of suffering.
I think the intuition underlying the argument—that most offspring die not long after birth—is one of the reasons many people believe wild-animal suffering predominates. It certainly might be the case that this intuition is misguided, such as based on what you said: “when the probability of suffering increases, the severity of suffering should decrease.” I have an article that also discusses theoretical reasons why shorter-lived animals and animals who are less likely to ever reproduce may not feel as much pain or fear as we would from the same kinds of injuries.
While I think these kinds of arguments are interesting, I give them relatively low epistemic weight because they’re so theoretical. I think the best way to assess the net hedonic balance of wild animals is to watch videos and read about their lives, seeing what kinds of emotions they display, and then come up with our own subjective opinions about how much pain and pleasure they feel. This method is biased by anthropomorphism, but it’s at least somewhat more anchored to reality than simple theoretical models. We could try to combat anthropomorphism a bit by learning more about how other animals make tradeoffs between combinations of bad and good things, and so on.
For me, it will always remain obvious that suffering dominates in nature because I believe extreme, unbearable suffering can’t be outweighed by other organism-moments experiencing pleasure. In general, I think most of the disagreement about nature’s net hedonic balance comes down to differences in moral values rather than disagreements about facts. But yes, it remains useful to improve our frameworks for thinking about this topic, as you’re helping to do. :)
Thanks Brian. I agree that this sort of argument deserves relatively low epistemic weight and that the argument is very speculative, as I tried to emphasize in the paper but am worried that not everybody picked up. I’m definitely more uncertain than you on the topic, perhaps because of different views on suffering. Thanks for the comment.
I’m thankful for this discussion. Previously, I was under the impression that most people who looked deeply into WAS concluded that there was definitely net suffering. However, now it’s clear to me this isn’t the case.
Brian—I’m wondering if you’ve explained elsewhere exactly what you mean by “extreme, unbearable suffering can’t be outweighed by other organism-moments experiencing pleasure.” Is this an expression of negative utilitarianism, or just the empirical claim that current organisms have greater suffering capacity than pleasure capacity?
I am a total hedonic utilitarian, and not negative leaning at all, so I’m wondering what conclusion this philosophical position would lead to, given all the empirical considerations.
You’re right that communication on this topic hasn’t always been the most clear. :)
This section of my reply to Michael Plant helps explain my view on those questions. I think assessments of the intensities of pain and pleasure necessarily involve significant normative judgment calls, unless you define pain and pleasure in a sufficiently concrete way that it becomes a factual matter. (But that begs the question of what concrete definition is the right one to choose.)
I guess most people who aim to quantify pleasure and pain don’t choose numbers such that unbearable suffering outweighs any amount of pleasure, so the statement you quoted could be said to be mainly about my negative-utilitarian values (though I would say that a view that pleasure can outweigh unbearable suffering is ultimately a statement about someone’s non-negative-utilitarian values).
I think this is a good place to start, although not written by Brian: