If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027[1] as reported by FRED is higher than 8 % (it was 4.0 % in 2024), I give you 10 k$.
Otherwise, you give me 5 k$.
You expect to gain money from this bet if your probability of the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027 being higher than 8 % exceeds 1ā3 (= 1/ā(10*10^3/ā(5*10^3) + 1)). Feel free to suggest updates.
This is not an official proposal. I would want to think about it a little more, and then publish a post about it.
What do you think about the following bet?
If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027[1] as reported by FRED is higher than 8 % (it was 4.0 % in 2024), I give you 10 k$.
Otherwise, you give me 5 k$.
You expect to gain money from this bet if your probability of the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027 being higher than 8 % exceeds 1ā3 (= 1/ā(10*10^3/ā(5*10^3) + 1)). Feel free to suggest updates.
This is not an official proposal. I would want to think about it a little more, and then publish a post about it.
This is equal to (ārate in January 2027ā + ārate in February 2027ā³ + ā¦ + ārate in December 2027ā)/ā12.
Iād do that, but for $1000 /ā $2000.
Cool! I will try to set up a draft post over the next 2 weeks.
Here is the announcement of the bet.