Thanks! I don’t have strong evidence for this, but I definitely have a strong prior that we’ll miss good grants, evaluated from the POV of benevolent impartial agents with perfect clairvoyance. The world just doesn’t seem that fundamentally predictable to me.
I disagree with this, not because we’re particularly good at predicting which projects get successful, but because funders have been very generous with money lately (e.g., EAIF and LTFF have had pretty high acceptance rates), which makes it pretty unlikely that we’ll miss one.
I meant pretty much any of the possible interpretations of goodness, though not the literal interpretation of ‘proposal’.
Thanks! I don’t have strong evidence for this, but I definitely have a strong prior that we’ll miss good grants, evaluated from the POV of benevolent impartial agents with perfect clairvoyance. The world just doesn’t seem that fundamentally predictable to me.
I disagree with this, not because we’re particularly good at predicting which projects get successful, but because funders have been very generous with money lately (e.g., EAIF and LTFF have had pretty high acceptance rates), which makes it pretty unlikely that we’ll miss one.
Oh yeah that’s a really good point.