Why don’t we discount future lives based on the probability of them not existing? These lives might end up not being born, right?
I understand the idea of not discount lives due to distance (distance in time as well as distance in space). Knowing a drowning child is 30km away is different from hearing from a friend that there is an x% chance of a drowning child 30km away. In the former, you know something exists; in the latter, there is a probability that it does exist, and you apply an suitable level of confidence in your actions.
We should discount someone’s life based on the probability of them not existing. This is not controversial. (But standard-economic constant-factor-per-year discounting is too crude to be useful.)
Why don’t we discount future lives based on the probability of them not existing? These lives might end up not being born, right?
I understand the idea of not discount lives due to distance (distance in time as well as distance in space). Knowing a drowning child is 30km away is different from hearing from a friend that there is an x% chance of a drowning child 30km away. In the former, you know something exists; in the latter, there is a probability that it does exist, and you apply an suitable level of confidence in your actions.
We should discount someone’s life based on the probability of them not existing. This is not controversial. (But standard-economic constant-factor-per-year discounting is too crude to be useful.)