1. I chose AI researchers because then I could use Grace et. al. as directly as possible, and I chose historians because I expected them to differ the most from AI researchers
2. I worked on this for about 30 min, so it’s pretty rough. To make it better, I’d:
a. dig into Grace et. al. more (first data, then methods) to learn more about how to interpret the results/what they tell us about the answer to Linch’s question
b. read other expert surveys re: when will AGI come (I think AI Impacts has collected these)
My predictions for:
1. AI researchers
2. Historians
Notes:
1. I chose AI researchers because then I could use Grace et. al. as directly as possible, and I chose historians because I expected them to differ the most from AI researchers
2. I worked on this for about 30 min, so it’s pretty rough. To make it better, I’d:
a. dig into Grace et. al. more (first data, then methods) to learn more about how to interpret the results/what they tell us about the answer to Linch’s question
b. read other expert surveys re: when will AGI come (I think AI Impacts has collected these)
(JTBC, I work at Ought)