If a question like that from Grace et.al’s 2016 survey (note I can not find the exact question)
High-level machine intelligence” (HLMI) is achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. How many years from now will HLMI be achieved?
was replicated in August 2025 (and had high rates of people filling it, etc), what will the unweighted average of the 50th percentile from the following groups be?
1. AI experts, similar to Grace et.al’s original survey
1. I chose AI researchers because then I could use Grace et. al. as directly as possible, and I chose historians because I expected them to differ the most from AI researchers
2. I worked on this for about 30 min, so it’s pretty rough. To make it better, I’d:
a. dig into Grace et. al. more (first data, then methods) to learn more about how to interpret the results/what they tell us about the answer to Linch’s question
b. read other expert surveys re: when will AGI come (I think AI Impacts has collected these)
If a question like that from Grace et.al’s 2016 survey (note I can not find the exact question)
was replicated in August 2025 (and had high rates of people filling it, etc), what will the unweighted average of the 50th percentile from the following groups be?
1. AI experts, similar to Grace et.al’s original survey
2. Economists, eg IGM economist panels
3. Attendants of the Economics of AI conference
4. Superforecasters
5. Top 100 users on Metaculus
6. Historians
7. Neuroscientists
8. Long-termist philosophers
9. The EA Survey
10. Employees of Ought
This is a lot of questions, so just pick whichever one you’re most excited to answer and/or think is the best reference class! :)
My predictions for:
1. AI researchers
2. Historians
Notes:
1. I chose AI researchers because then I could use Grace et. al. as directly as possible, and I chose historians because I expected them to differ the most from AI researchers
2. I worked on this for about 30 min, so it’s pretty rough. To make it better, I’d:
a. dig into Grace et. al. more (first data, then methods) to learn more about how to interpret the results/what they tell us about the answer to Linch’s question
b. read other expert surveys re: when will AGI come (I think AI Impacts has collected these)
(JTBC, I work at Ought)