Here’s my forecast. The past is the best predictor of the future, so I looked at past monthly data as the base rate.
I first tried to tease out whether there was a correlation in which months had more activity between 2020 and 2019. It seemed there was a weak negative correlation, so I figured my base rate should be just based on the past few months of data.
In addition to the past few months of data, I considered that part of the catalyst for record-setting July activity might be Aaron’s “Why you should put on the EA Forum” EAGx talk. Due to this possibility, I gave August a 65% chance of hitting over the base rate of 105 >=10 karma posts.
How many EA forum posts will there be with greater than or equal to 10 karma submitted in August of 2020?
Here’s my forecast. The past is the best predictor of the future, so I looked at past monthly data as the base rate.
I first tried to tease out whether there was a correlation in which months had more activity between 2020 and 2019. It seemed there was a weak negative correlation, so I figured my base rate should be just based on the past few months of data.
In addition to the past few months of data, I considered that part of the catalyst for record-setting July activity might be Aaron’s “Why you should put on the EA Forum” EAGx talk. Due to this possibility, I gave August a 65% chance of hitting over the base rate of 105 >=10 karma posts.
My numerical analysis is in this sheet.