Here’s my prediction for this! Awesome proposal, I enjoyed reading it. I wrote up more of my thought process here, but a brief overview:
It would help a lot to know the base rate of EA initiatives succeeding past the first year. I couldn’t find any information on this, but it possibly does exist
It wasn’t entirely clear to me what the impact you expect from this project is, which made it hard to estimate cost effectiveness.
I suspect a lot of the indirect impact (building EA connections, converting researchers to EA philosophies) will take a while to manifest
I wanted to know more information about the expected time cost of organizing this, as this would make it less cost effective.
I say this in the post above, but since this may be relevant to decisions you make I want to caveat that I only spent ~1 hour on this! I’d love to hear if you agree/disagree (here’s a blank distribution for the question if you want to create your own.
(Regarding the platform, I think it would help a bit to clarify things if I could do something like selecting a range with the mouse and have the probability mass of that interval displayed)
You should be able to access the doc from the link in my comment now! That’s useful feedback re: selecting a range and seeing the probability. You can currently see the probability of an interval by defining the interval, leaving the prob blank, and hovering over the bin, but I like the solution you described.
Here’s my prediction for this! Awesome proposal, I enjoyed reading it. I wrote up more of my thought process here, but a brief overview:
It would help a lot to know the base rate of EA initiatives succeeding past the first year. I couldn’t find any information on this, but it possibly does exist
It wasn’t entirely clear to me what the impact you expect from this project is, which made it hard to estimate cost effectiveness.
I suspect a lot of the indirect impact (building EA connections, converting researchers to EA philosophies) will take a while to manifest
I wanted to know more information about the expected time cost of organizing this, as this would make it less cost effective.
I say this in the post above, but since this may be relevant to decisions you make I want to caveat that I only spent ~1 hour on this! I’d love to hear if you agree/disagree (here’s a blank distribution for the question if you want to create your own.
Fantastic, thanks!
I’ve requested access to the doc :)
(Regarding the platform, I think it would help a bit to clarify things if I could do something like selecting a range with the mouse and have the probability mass of that interval displayed)
You should be able to access the doc from the link in my comment now! That’s useful feedback re: selecting a range and seeing the probability. You can currently see the probability of an interval by defining the interval, leaving the prob blank, and hovering over the bin, but I like the solution you described.