I’ve generally been quite optimistic that the increased awareness AI xRisk has got recently can lead to some actual progress in reducing the risks and harms from AI. However, I’ve become increasingly sad at the ongoing rivalry between the AI ‘Safety’ and ‘Ethics’ camps[1] 😔 Since the CAIS Letter was released, there seems to have been an increasing level of hostility on Twitter between the two camps, though my impression is that the holistility is mainly one-directional.[2]
I dearly hope that a coalition of some form can be built here, even if it is an uneasy one, but I fear that it might not be possible. It unfortunately seems like a textbook case of mistake vs conflict theory approaches at work? I’d love someone to change my mind, and say that Twitter amplifies the loudest voices,[3] and that in the background people are making attempts to build bridges. But I fear that instead that the centre cannot hold, and that there will be not just simmering resentment but open hostility between the two camps.
If that happens, then I don’t think those involved in AI Safety work can afford to remain passive in response to sustained attack. I think that this has already damaged the prospects of the movement,[4] and future consequences could be even worse. If the other player in your game is constantly defecting, it’s probably time to start defecting back.
Can someone please persuade me that my pessimism is unfounded?
I’m open to be corrected here, but I feel like those sceptical of the AI xRisk/AI Safety communities have upped the ante in terms of the amount of criticism and its vitriol—though I am open to the explanation that I’ve been looking out for it more
The EA community’s silence regarding Torres has led to the acronym ‘TESCREAL’ gaining increasing prominence amongst academic circles—and it is not a neutral one, and gives them more prominence and a larger platform.
I can’t say I have a strategy David. I’ve just been quite upset and riled up by the discourse over the last week just as I had gained some optimism :( I’m afraid that by trying to turn the other cheek to hostility, those working to mitigate AI xRisk end up ceding the court of public opinion to those hostile to it.
I think some suggestions would be:
Standing up to, and callying out, bullying in these discussions can cause a preference cascade of pushback to it—see here—but someone needs to stand up for people to realise that dominant voices are not representative of a field, and silence may obscure areas for collaboration and mutual coalitions to form.
Being aware of what critiques of EA/AI xRisk get traction in adjacent communities. Some of it might be malicious, but a lot of it seems to be a default attitude of scepticism merged with misunderstandings. While not everyone would change their mind, I think people reaching ‘across the aisle’ might correct the record in many people’s minds. Even if not for the person making the claims, perhaps for those watching and reading online.
Publicly pushing back on Torres. I don’t know what went down when they were more involved in the EA movement that caused their opinion to flip 180 degrees, but I think the main ‘strategy’ has been to ignore their work and not respond to their criticism. The result: their ideas gaining prominence in the AI Ethics field, publications in notable outlets, despite acting consistently in bad faith. To their credit, they are voraciously productive in their output and I don’t expect to it slow down. Continuing with a failed strategy doesn’t sound like the right call here.
In cases of the most severe hostility, potential considering legal or institutional action? In this example, can you really just get away with calling someone a eugenicist when it’s so obviously false? But there have been cases where people have successfully sued for defamation for statements made on Twitter. That’s an extreme option though, but not worth ignoring entirely.
I would recommend trying to figure out how much loud people matter. Like it’s unclear if anyone is both susceptible to sneer/dunk culture and potentially useful someday. Kindness and rigor come with pretty massive selection effects, i.e., people who want the world to be better and are willing to apply scrutiny to their goals will pretty naturally discredit hostile pundits and just as naturally get funneled toward more sophisticated framings or literatures.
I don’t claim this attitude would work for all the scicomm and public opinion strategy sectors of the movement or classes of levers, but it works well to help me stay busy and focused and epistemically virtuous.
I’ve generally been quite optimistic that the increased awareness AI xRisk has got recently can lead to some actual progress in reducing the risks and harms from AI. However, I’ve become increasingly sad at the ongoing rivalry between the AI ‘Safety’ and ‘Ethics’ camps[1] 😔 Since the CAIS Letter was released, there seems to have been an increasing level of hostility on Twitter between the two camps, though my impression is that the holistility is mainly one-directional.[2]
I dearly hope that a coalition of some form can be built here, even if it is an uneasy one, but I fear that it might not be possible. It unfortunately seems like a textbook case of mistake vs conflict theory approaches at work? I’d love someone to change my mind, and say that Twitter amplifies the loudest voices,[3] and that in the background people are making attempts to build bridges. But I fear that instead that the centre cannot hold, and that there will be not just simmering resentment but open hostility between the two camps.
If that happens, then I don’t think those involved in AI Safety work can afford to remain passive in response to sustained attack. I think that this has already damaged the prospects of the movement,[4] and future consequences could be even worse. If the other player in your game is constantly defecting, it’s probably time to start defecting back.
Can someone please persuade me that my pessimism is unfounded?
FWIW I don’t like these terms, but people seem to intuitively grok what is meant by them
I’m open to be corrected here, but I feel like those sceptical of the AI xRisk/AI Safety communities have upped the ante in terms of the amount of criticism and its vitriol—though I am open to the explanation that I’ve been looking out for it more
It also seems very bad that the two camps do most of their talking to each other (if they do at all) via Twitter, that seems clearly suboptimal!!
The EA community’s silence regarding Torres has led to the acronym ‘TESCREAL’ gaining increasing prominence amongst academic circles—and it is not a neutral one, and gives them more prominence and a larger platform.
What does not “remaining passive” involve?
I can’t say I have a strategy David. I’ve just been quite upset and riled up by the discourse over the last week just as I had gained some optimism :( I’m afraid that by trying to turn the other cheek to hostility, those working to mitigate AI xRisk end up ceding the court of public opinion to those hostile to it.
I think some suggestions would be:
Standing up to, and callying out, bullying in these discussions can cause a preference cascade of pushback to it—see here—but someone needs to stand up for people to realise that dominant voices are not representative of a field, and silence may obscure areas for collaboration and mutual coalitions to form.
Being aware of what critiques of EA/AI xRisk get traction in adjacent communities. Some of it might be malicious, but a lot of it seems to be a default attitude of scepticism merged with misunderstandings. While not everyone would change their mind, I think people reaching ‘across the aisle’ might correct the record in many people’s minds. Even if not for the person making the claims, perhaps for those watching and reading online.
Publicly pushing back on Torres. I don’t know what went down when they were more involved in the EA movement that caused their opinion to flip 180 degrees, but I think the main ‘strategy’ has been to ignore their work and not respond to their criticism. The result: their ideas gaining prominence in the AI Ethics field, publications in notable outlets, despite acting consistently in bad faith. To their credit, they are voraciously productive in their output and I don’t expect to it slow down. Continuing with a failed strategy doesn’t sound like the right call here.
In cases of the most severe hostility, potential considering legal or institutional action? In this example, can you really just get away with calling someone a eugenicist when it’s so obviously false? But there have been cases where people have successfully sued for defamation for statements made on Twitter. That’s an extreme option though, but not worth ignoring entirely.
I would recommend trying to figure out how much loud people matter. Like it’s unclear if anyone is both susceptible to sneer/dunk culture and potentially useful someday. Kindness and rigor come with pretty massive selection effects, i.e., people who want the world to be better and are willing to apply scrutiny to their goals will pretty naturally discredit hostile pundits and just as naturally get funneled toward more sophisticated framings or literatures.
I don’t claim this attitude would work for all the scicomm and public opinion strategy sectors of the movement or classes of levers, but it works well to help me stay busy and focused and epistemically virtuous.
I wrote some notes about a way forward last february, I just CC’d them to shortform so I could share with you https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/r5GbSZ7dcb6nbuWch/quinn-s-shortform?commentId=nskr6XbPghTfTQoag
related comment I made: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nsLTKCd3Bvdwzj9x8/ingroup-deference?commentId=zZNNTk5YNYZRykbTu