TPNW supporters are more likely to be engaged in civil war, but are less prone to inter-state conflict and territorial disputes
I initially interpreted that to mean that you found specific evidence that TPNW supporters are more likely to engage in civil war. However, the section that follows doesn’t seem to contain such evidence, and in fact seems to include evidence that they are involved in less total armed conflict, which weakly suggests less civil war. (Though of course it doesn’t prove that, as supporters might have slightly more civil war than non-supporters, yet far less interstate war, resulting in less armed conflict in total.)
So was that claim actually meant not as a confident claim based on specific evidence, but more as a guess, as the following quote seems to suggest?
As far as I can tell, TPNW supporters are just unusually peaceful countries. Though I suspect they may be involved in disproportionately more civil war, their lack of history of interstate violence and territorial disputes makes me think that are less likely to be involved in the kind of conflict where nuclear weapons are particularly valuable. (emphasis added)
One reason I’m curious about this is that it seems that a higher likelihood of civil war in a country might cause its government to have less desire to develop nuclear weapons (because the government might fear the weapons would at some point end up in the hands of some internal enemy or hated regime).
I initially interpreted that to mean that you found specific evidence that TPNW supporters are more likely to engage in civil war. However, the section that follows doesn’t seem to contain such evidence, and in fact seems to include evidence that they are involved in less total armed conflict, which weakly suggests less civil war. (Though of course it doesn’t prove that, as supporters might have slightly more civil war than non-supporters, yet far less interstate war, resulting in less armed conflict in total.)
So was that claim actually meant not as a confident claim based on specific evidence, but more as a guess, as the following quote seems to suggest?
One reason I’m curious about this is that it seems that a higher likelihood of civil war in a country might cause its government to have less desire to develop nuclear weapons (because the government might fear the weapons would at some point end up in the hands of some internal enemy or hated regime).