MichaelA🔸 comments on Will the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons affect nuclear deproliferation through legal channels?

[MichaelA🔸]

I continue to find this series of posts excellent—thanks for writing them!

I put the probability that the TPNW will be causally responsible for TPNW supporters choosing not to pursue a nuclear weapons program around 20% (subjective confidence interval: 0–45%).

Does this mean the following:

I put the probability that, sometime during the next 20 years, the TPNW will be causally responsible for at least one TPNW supporter choosing not to pursue a nuclear weapons program around 20% (subjective confidence interval: 0–45%).