just on a longer timeline than the unrealistic ones that were once touted
I spent a few minutes digging into prediction markets to see if sentiment there changed. I couldn’t find good questions from 2023 or before that are still open. But here are two that have been open for about a year—and in both cases, it doesn’t seem like people have become more cynical over that period.
So it roughly seems like the forecasting community hasn’t really updated downwards in 2024, at least.
I spent a few minutes digging into prediction markets to see if sentiment there changed. I couldn’t find good questions from 2023 or before that are still open. But here are two that have been open for about a year—and in both cases, it doesn’t seem like people have become more cynical over that period.
So it roughly seems like the forecasting community hasn’t really updated downwards in 2024, at least.