Yeah I think my sense was definitely that people saw Tool AI as a great solution, but mostly interim. If we had phrased it as being “locked in forever,” the reactions might have looked very different? I’ve interpreted it more as that people seem to see it as preserving option value: we can still develop AGI later, but ideally after we’ve managed to integrate Tool AI into society, and set up systems to handle AGI better than if it came now when we’re quite poorly prepared.
Really appreciate your points on capital dividend funds and the distributional side as well. If you’re up for it, would love if you shared these thoughts on the Metaculus tournament too, where we’re running a comment prize exactly to surface perspectives like this: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/ :)
Yeah I think my sense was definitely that people saw Tool AI as a great solution, but mostly interim. If we had phrased it as being “locked in forever,” the reactions might have looked very different? I’ve interpreted it more as that people seem to see it as preserving option value: we can still develop AGI later, but ideally after we’ve managed to integrate Tool AI into society, and set up systems to handle AGI better than if it came now when we’re quite poorly prepared.
Really appreciate your points on capital dividend funds and the distributional side as well. If you’re up for it, would love if you shared these thoughts on the Metaculus tournament too, where we’re running a comment prize exactly to surface perspectives like this: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/foresight-ai-pathways/ :)