elte

Launch­ing the $10,000 Ex­is­ten­tial Hope Meme Prize

• elte 22 Aug 2025 8:49 UTC

  4 points

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  on: Fore­sight In­sti­tute launches two pos­si­ble fu­ture sce­nar­ios with AI

  FYI we recorded a podcast episode with Anthony Aguirre focused on the Tool AI scenario. We asked Anthony to stress test it, trade-offs, incentives, liability, and the plausibility of actually making a Tool AI future happen, and we also talk a bit about why we did this project overall and how it relates to the companion d/​acc scenario: https://​​www.youtube.com/​​watch?v=JwJaFMi3Ydw&feature=youtu.be

• elte 20 Aug 2025 20:29 UTC

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  in reply to: Denkenberger🔸’s comment on: Fore­sight In­sti­tute launches two pos­si­ble fu­ture sce­nar­ios with AI

  Yeah I think my sense was definitely that people saw Tool AI as a great solution, but mostly interim. If we had phrased it as being “locked in forever,” the reactions might have looked very different? I’ve interpreted it more as that people seem to see it as preserving option value: we can still develop AGI later, but ideally after we’ve managed to integrate Tool AI into society, and set up systems to handle AGI better than if it came now when we’re quite poorly prepared.

  Really appreciate your points on capital dividend funds and the distributional side as well. If you’re up for it, would love if you shared these thoughts on the Metaculus tournament too, where we’re running a comment prize exactly to surface perspectives like this: https://​​www.metaculus.com/​​tournament/​​foresight-ai-pathways/​​ :)

• elte 19 Aug 2025 14:32 UTC

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  in reply to: Tristan D’s comment on: Vir­tual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s “Deep Utopia: Life and Mean­ing in a Solved World”

  it went well but nothing recorded unfortunately :(

Fore­sight In­sti­tute launches two pos­si­ble fu­ture sce­nar­ios with AI

el­teerk­ers’s Quick takes

• elte 2 Apr 2025 15:25 UTC

  6 points

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  on: el­teerk­ers’s Quick takes

  We just launched a free, self-paced course: Worldbuilding Hopeful Futures with AI, created by Foresight Institute as part of our Existential Hope program.

  The course is probably not breaking new conceptual ground for folks here who are already “red-pilled” on AI risks — but it might still be of interest for a few reasons:

  • It’s designed to broaden the base of people engaging with long-term AI trajectories, including governance, institutional design, and alignment concerns.

  • It uses worldbuilding as an accessible gateway for newcomers — especially those who aren’t in technical fields but still want to understand and shape AI’s future.

  We’re inviting contributions from more experienced thinkers as well — to help seed more diverse, plausible, and strategically relevant futures that can guide better public conversations.

  Guest lectures include:

  Helen Toner (CSET, former OpenAI board) on frontier lab dynamics

  Anton Korinek (Brookings) on economic impact of AI

  Anthony Aguirre (FLI) on existential risk

  Hannah Ritchie (Our World in Data) on grounded progress

  Glen Weyl (RadicalxChange) on plural governance

  Ada Palmer (historian & sci-fi author) on long-range thinking

  If you’re involved in outreach, education, or mentoring, this might be a good resource to share. And if you’re curious about how we’re trying to translate these issues to a wider audience — or want to help build out more compelling positive-world scenarios — we’d love your input.

  👉 https://​​www.udemy.com/​​course/​​worldbuilding-hopeful-futures-with-ai/​​

  Would love feedback or questions — and happy to incorporate critiques into the next iteration.

Vir­tual Book Club on Nick Bostrom’s “Deep Utopia: Life and Mean­ing in a Solved World”

Deep Utopia Vir­tual Book Club

AI In­sti­tu­tion De­sign Hackathon (EAG Bay Area Satel­lite Event)

• elte 6 Nov 2023 14:01 UTC

  8 points

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  in reply to: SebastianSchmidt’s comment on: Ex­is­ten­tial Hope and Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: Ex­plor­ing the value of op­ti­mistic ap­proaches to shap­ing the long-term future

  Thanks for your comment!

  Agree with your pros and cons.

  “Existential security” seems like a great one within EA.

  Have not seen the “procedural visions” one! Thanks for recommending it, will look.

  On your course question: As we are currently working on something similar to this at Foresight right now I will answer similarly to what we are thinking of adding there. Which is to do ambitious worldbuilding in groups of 4-5 people with complementary skill sets. Will share more when our resources are online for that!

  Thank you! :)

Ex­is­ten­tial Hope and Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: Ex­plor­ing the value of op­ti­mistic ap­proaches to shap­ing the long-term future

Launch­ing Fore­sight In­sti­tute’s AI Grant for Un­der­ex­plored Ap­proaches to AI Safety – Ap­ply for Fund­ing!

• elte 14 Apr 2023 8:27 UTC

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  in reply to: C Tilli’s comment on: Pre­limi­nary in­ves­ti­ga­tions on if STEM and EA com­mu­ni­ties could benefit from more overlap

  Thanks for the question!

  I would say that it’s not that people aren’t aware of risks, my broad reflection is more in terms of how one relates to it. In the EA/​X-risk community it is clear that one should take these things extremely seriously and do everything one can to prevent them. I often feel that even though researchers in general are very aware of potential risks with their technologies, they seem to get swept up in the daily business of just doing their work, and not reflecting very actively over the potential risks with it.

  I don’t know exactly why that is, it could be that they don’t consider it their personal responsibility, or perhaps they feel powerless and that aiming to push progress forward is either the best or the only option? But that is a question that would be interesting to dig deeper into!

• elte 14 Apr 2023 8:17 UTC

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  in reply to: Linda Linsefors’s comment on: Pre­limi­nary in­ves­ti­ga­tions on if STEM and EA com­mu­ni­ties could benefit from more overlap

  That’s a good point. I’m unsure of what the best way of facilitating these meetings would be, so that it doesn’t downplay the seriousness of the questions. But assuming good intentions, allowing for disagreements, and acknowledging the differences is enough and the best option.

• elte 14 Apr 2023 8:10 UTC

  1 point

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• elte 14 Apr 2023 8:10 UTC

  1 point

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  in reply to: Jessica Wen’s comment on: Pre­limi­nary in­ves­ti­ga­tions on if STEM and EA com­mu­ni­ties could benefit from more overlap

  Agree it doesn’t represent “the STEM community”. As in my reply to Jessica’s longer comment, I agree there isn’t really such a thing as “the STEM community”, and if I were to write the post now I would want to better reflect the fact that this was asked to the Foresight community, in which most participants are working in one of our technical fields: neurotech, space tech, nanotech, biotech or computation. In the survey I ask if people identify themselves as STEM professionals, a question to which most answered yes (85% of respondents in this v. small survey).

• elte 14 Apr 2023 8:09 UTC

  1 point

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  in reply to: DavidNash’s comment on: Pre­limi­nary in­ves­ti­ga­tions on if STEM and EA com­mu­ni­ties could benefit from more overlap

  Thank you!

• elte 14 Apr 2023 8:06 UTC

  1 point

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  in reply to: Jessica Wen’s comment on: Pre­limi­nary in­ves­ti­ga­tions on if STEM and EA com­mu­ni­ties could benefit from more overlap

  Hi Jessica, thank you so much for your thorough read and response! I found it very useful.

  I agree there isn’t really such a thing as “the STEM community”, and if I were to write the post now I would want to better reflect the fact that this was asked to the Foresight community, in which most participants are working in one of our technical fields: neurotech, space tech, nanotech, biotech or computation. In the survey I ask if people identify themselves as STEM professionals, a question to which most answered yes (85% of respondents in this v. small survey). So as you point out, most are not in the life sciences.

  Regarding the demographics, our community is very male dominated. However, our team is all female, and we are actively trying to improve on this. I would be interested to hear if you at HI Engineers are doing anything on this, and have any learning that you can share? I did not collect any data on ethnicity or age in this survey.

  As I stated in the post, and can only state again, this is very preliminary, so I agree one shouldn’t draw too much of a conclusion based on this. But I’m happy I put it out there as is so that I could get this useful feedback from you!

  Regarding what technology means in the text, I would say that it refers to both informations and “physical” technologies. I’d be very interested to hear more about your outreach work with HI Engineers. Overall, your work looks very interesting, and so I hope you don’t mind if I reach out “off forum”! :)

• elte 12 Apr 2023 11:55 UTC

  1 point

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  in reply to: DavidNash’s comment on: Pre­limi­nary in­ves­ti­ga­tions on if STEM and EA com­mu­ni­ties could benefit from more overlap

  Good point! Are there any other X-risk communities you think we should look at, other than the ones already active within EA?