There seems to be quite a few people who are keen to take up the bet against extinction in 2027… are there many who would be willing to take the opposite bet (on equal terms (i.e. bet + inflation) as opposed to the 200% loss that Greg is on the hook for)?
Do people also mind where their bet goes? In this case I see the money went to PauseAI, would people be willing to make the bet if the money went to that person for them to just spend as they want? I could see someone who believed p(doom) by 2027 was 90%+ might just want more money to go on holiday before the end if they doubt any intervention will succeed. This is obviously hypothetical for interest sake as a real trade would need some sort of guarantee the money would be repaid etc. etc.
are there many who would be willing to take the opposite bet (on equal terms (i.e. bet + inflation) as opposed to the 200% loss that Greg is on the hook for)?
Note Greg does not expect to lose much money, since 10 k$ plus a 50 % chance of losing 20 k$ equals 0[1].
Do people also mind where their bet goes? In this case I see the money went to PauseAI, would people be willing to make the bet if the money went to that person for them to just spend as they want?
Greg having an altruistic motivation to go ahead with the bet makes me more confident that he will pay in case he loses. I also like that my money is going towards an organisation:
It feels basically like making a big donation[2], and I am already used to donating a few k$ each year, and until recently they went to AI safety.
There seems to be quite a few people who are keen to take up the bet against extinction in 2027… are there many who would be willing to take the opposite bet (on equal terms (i.e. bet + inflation) as opposed to the 200% loss that Greg is on the hook for)?
Do people also mind where their bet goes? In this case I see the money went to PauseAI, would people be willing to make the bet if the money went to that person for them to just spend as they want? I could see someone who believed p(doom) by 2027 was 90%+ might just want more money to go on holiday before the end if they doubt any intervention will succeed. This is obviously hypothetical for interest sake as a real trade would need some sort of guarantee the money would be repaid etc. etc.
Thanks for the questions, James!
Note Greg does not expect to lose much money, since 10 k$ plus a 50 % chance of losing 20 k$ equals 0[1].
Greg having an altruistic motivation to go ahead with the bet makes me more confident that he will pay in case he loses. I also like that my money is going towards an organisation:
It feels basically like making a big donation[2], and I am already used to donating a few k$ each year, and until recently they went to AI safety.
It helps me justify the agreement to my family.
In reality, Greg’s median time of human extinction is a little after Janury 2028, so he expects to lose a little bit of money.
Although I did not formally consider it a donation in the context of e.g. my Giving What We Can Pledge.