This isn’t true if Greg values animal welfare donations above most non-AI things by a sufficient amount. He could have tried to shop around for more favorable conditions with someone else in EA circles but it seems pretty likely that he’d end up going with this one. There’s no market for these bets.
What’s the relevant threshold here? Greg has to prefer $10k going to animal charities in 3 years’ time over that $10k going partly to debt interest and partly to whatever he wants?
This isn’t true if Greg values animal welfare donations above most non-AI things by a sufficient amount.
I think Greg would have been happy to go ahead with this bet regardless of my donation plans.
He could have tried to shop around for more favorable conditions with someone else in EA circles but it seems pretty likely that he’d end up going with this one.
For reference, Greg has had a similar offer to this bet for around a year on X, although I guess many do not know about it (I did not until 2 months ago).
Yes, I would go ahead regardless of the other party’s plans for their winnings (but for the record I very much approve of Vasco’s valuing of animal welfare).
This isn’t true if Greg values animal welfare donations above most non-AI things by a sufficient amount. He could have tried to shop around for more favorable conditions with someone else in EA circles but it seems pretty likely that he’d end up going with this one. There’s no market for these bets.
What’s the relevant threshold here? Greg has to prefer $10k going to animal charities in 3 years’ time over that $10k going partly to debt interest and partly to whatever he wants?
Thanks for the comment, mlsbt!
I think Greg would have been happy to go ahead with this bet regardless of my donation plans.
For reference, Greg has had a similar offer to this bet for around a year on X, although I guess many do not know about it (I did not until 2 months ago).
Yes, I would go ahead regardless of the other party’s plans for their winnings (but for the record I very much approve of Vasco’s valuing of animal welfare).
I originally intended this bet to be made with enemies, not friends[1]. i.e. I was hoping an e/acc would take it, rather than an EA!
I’m using “friend” in a general sense here, as in someone broadly value aligned. I don’t actually know Vasco.