Note that I made an exception on timelines for this bet, to get it to happen as the first of it’s kind. I’d be more comfortable making it 5 years from the date of the bet. Anyway, open to doing $10k, especially if it’s done in terms of donations (makes things easier in terms of trust, I think). But I’m also going to say that I think the signalling value would be higher if it was against someone who wasn’t EA or concerned about AI x-risk.
Note that I made an exception on timelines for this bet, to get it to happen as the first of it’s kind. I’d be more comfortable making it 5 years from the date of the bet. Anyway, open to doing $10k, especially if it’s done in terms of donations (makes things easier in terms of trust, I think). But I’m also going to say that I think the signalling value would be higher if it was against someone who wasn’t EA or concerned about AI x-risk.