I don’t maintain that the B-2 crash lead to nuclear detonation in most worlds, the examples are treated in the paper as straight coinflips but this is mostly to illustrate the general threat of accidental nuclear war. Zeroing in on this case I’d be surprised if it is more likely than not for this crash to lead to a nuclear detonation than not, while the safety mechanisms were inadequate for something as dangerous as a nuclear device they are still a relevant factor.
Throughout this whole project, this is a question that has continued to bug me. Would the US have had the ability to understand that it had nuked itself rather than blaming it on the Soviet Union? I honestly don’t know how to go about answering this question, my gut says no, and this is why there’s never been an accidental nuclear detonation on US soil. This is an assumption that carries through this paper, but I’d be interested to read a more nuanced take on it. It might also be that while the B-2 crash leading to a nuclear detonation wouldn’t have immediately led to nuclear war it would have increased tensions during the Cuban missile crisis(i.e. it might not immediately lead to nuclear war but it does decrease the odds). If the nuclear detonation(in the B-2 case) is even correlated with nuclear war then we should expect persons to disproportionately live in worlds where it doesn’t occur.
It is very weird that there has never been an accidental nuclear detonation on American soil, one accidental detonation would significantly change my assessment. As a result, I still think the B-2 crash is still evidence in favor of my hypothesis.
This is a promising counterargument, I think ultimately making it would require a complex assessment of US cold-war propaganda and deep dive into those in positions of power during different parts of the cold war.
I’m not exactly sure if my distinction between descriptive claims and predictive claims really works. My intuition is that descriptive claims are simply safer than predictive claims as they are less vulnerable to unseen factors. I will think about this more.
I think it is due to how nuclear war(in the past) would mean that I specifically wouldn’t exist. On the other hand if theirs a trillion people in the future I still would.
I don’t maintain that the B-2 crash lead to nuclear detonation in most worlds, the examples are treated in the paper as straight coinflips but this is mostly to illustrate the general threat of accidental nuclear war. Zeroing in on this case I’d be surprised if it is more likely than not for this crash to lead to a nuclear detonation than not, while the safety mechanisms were inadequate for something as dangerous as a nuclear device they are still a relevant factor.
Throughout this whole project, this is a question that has continued to bug me. Would the US have had the ability to understand that it had nuked itself rather than blaming it on the Soviet Union? I honestly don’t know how to go about answering this question, my gut says no, and this is why there’s never been an accidental nuclear detonation on US soil. This is an assumption that carries through this paper, but I’d be interested to read a more nuanced take on it. It might also be that while the B-2 crash leading to a nuclear detonation wouldn’t have immediately led to nuclear war it would have increased tensions during the Cuban missile crisis(i.e. it might not immediately lead to nuclear war but it does decrease the odds). If the nuclear detonation(in the B-2 case) is even correlated with nuclear war then we should expect persons to disproportionately live in worlds where it doesn’t occur.
It is very weird that there has never been an accidental nuclear detonation on American soil, one accidental detonation would significantly change my assessment. As a result, I still think the B-2 crash is still evidence in favor of my hypothesis.
This is a promising counterargument, I think ultimately making it would require a complex assessment of US cold-war propaganda and deep dive into those in positions of power during different parts of the cold war.
I’m not exactly sure if my distinction between descriptive claims and predictive claims really works. My intuition is that descriptive claims are simply safer than predictive claims as they are less vulnerable to unseen factors. I will think about this more.
I think it is due to how nuclear war(in the past) would mean that I specifically wouldn’t exist. On the other hand if theirs a trillion people in the future I still would.