But point 3 relies on underconfident estimates of the individual factors.
I’m not sure that addresses Buck’s point. I just don’t think you can reduce this to “people tend to be overconfident”, even if it’s a conclusion in a limited domain.
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But point 3 relies on underconfident estimates of the individual factors.
I’m not sure that addresses Buck’s point. I just don’t think you can reduce this to “people tend to be overconfident”, even if it’s a conclusion in a limited domain.