Carl, I agree with everything you’re saying, so I’m a bit confused about why you think you disagree with this post.
This post is a response to the very specific case made in an earlier forum post, where they use a limited scenario to define transformative AI, and then argue that we should see interest rates rising if if traders believe that scenario to be near.
I argue that we can’t use interest rates to judge if said, specific scenario is near or not. That doesn’t mean there are no ways to bet on AI (in a broader sense). Yes, when tech firms are trading at high multiples, and valuations of companies like NVIDIA/ OpenAI/ DeepMind is growing, that’s evidence for a claim that “traders expect these technologies to become more powerful in the near-ish future”. Talking to investors provides further evidence in the same direction—I just left McKinsey, so up until recently I’ve had plenty of those conversations myself.
So this post should not be read as an argument about what the market believes, nor is it an argument for short or long timelines. It is only an argument that interest rates aren’t strong evidence either way.
Yes, in isolation I see how that seems to clash with what Carl is saying. But that’s after I’ve granted the limited definition of TAI (x-risk or explosive, shared growth) from the former post. When you allow for scenarios with powerful AI where savings still matter, the picture changes (and I think that’s a more accurate description of the real world). I see that I could’ve been more clear that this post was a case of “even if blindly accepting the (somewhat unrealistic) assumptions of another post, their conclusions don’t follow”, and not an attempt at describing reality as accurately as possible
Carl, I agree with everything you’re saying, so I’m a bit confused about why you think you disagree with this post.
This post is a response to the very specific case made in an earlier forum post, where they use a limited scenario to define transformative AI, and then argue that we should see interest rates rising if if traders believe that scenario to be near.
I argue that we can’t use interest rates to judge if said, specific scenario is near or not. That doesn’t mean there are no ways to bet on AI (in a broader sense). Yes, when tech firms are trading at high multiples, and valuations of companies like NVIDIA/ OpenAI/ DeepMind is growing, that’s evidence for a claim that “traders expect these technologies to become more powerful in the near-ish future”. Talking to investors provides further evidence in the same direction—I just left McKinsey, so up until recently I’ve had plenty of those conversations myself.
So this post should not be read as an argument about what the market believes, nor is it an argument for short or long timelines. It is only an argument that interest rates aren’t strong evidence either way.
It seems to me like you disagree with Carl because you write:
So you’re saying that investors can’t win from betting on near-term TAI. But Carl thinks they can win.
As Tom says, sorry if I wasn’t clear.
Yes, in isolation I see how that seems to clash with what Carl is saying. But that’s after I’ve granted the limited definition of TAI (x-risk or explosive, shared growth) from the former post. When you allow for scenarios with powerful AI where savings still matter, the picture changes (and I think that’s a more accurate description of the real world). I see that I could’ve been more clear that this post was a case of “even if blindly accepting the (somewhat unrealistic) assumptions of another post, their conclusions don’t follow”, and not an attempt at describing reality as accurately as possible
I have now updated the post to reflect this