Just to clarify my tweet, I was saying NTI seems like a reasonable place to donate if you want to support nuclear security - as a proof of concept there are useful things to be done. I’m not claiming (i) nuclear security is the best cause area to support at the margin (in general I’d rank AI safety and biosecurity higher) or (ii) NTI is the best place to donate to help with nuclear security at the margin. Overall it seems plausible to me that donations there are 1-10% as effective as the EA Long Term Fund, and so below the bar for core longtermist donors (though still more effective than like ~99% of charities).
I’m curious about your 1-10% as effective than the LTFF figure. Would you say it’s that because you think AI safety is roughly 10-100x more pressing (important, neglected, tractable, etc.) than nuclear security, marginal reasons around NTI vs LTFF giving opportunities, or a fairly even mix of both?
Just to clarify my tweet, I was saying NTI seems like a reasonable place to donate if you want to support nuclear security - as a proof of concept there are useful things to be done. I’m not claiming (i) nuclear security is the best cause area to support at the margin (in general I’d rank AI safety and biosecurity higher) or (ii) NTI is the best place to donate to help with nuclear security at the margin. Overall it seems plausible to me that donations there are 1-10% as effective as the EA Long Term Fund, and so below the bar for core longtermist donors (though still more effective than like ~99% of charities).
I’m curious about your 1-10% as effective than the LTFF figure. Would you say it’s that because you think AI safety is roughly 10-100x more pressing (important, neglected, tractable, etc.) than nuclear security, marginal reasons around NTI vs LTFF giving opportunities, or a fairly even mix of both?