Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia’s airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.
US Politics: A US comedian’s show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left-wing groups.
Tech and AI: Open-source AIs were used to design variants of a simple virus genome, eliminating the need for most lab work.
Economy: The US Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations. The Shiller PE ratio is 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble.
Forecaster estimates:
What is the chance that Maduro will still be in power on Jan 1, 2026? 88% (30%, 90%, 92%, 95%, 96%)
What is the chance that any US troops will be reported to be on the ground in Venezuela in 2025? 11% (3%, 7%, 8%, 55%)
What is the chance that the US military will be reported to strike any location on Venezuelan land in 2025? 39% (10% to 70%)
What is the chance that Russia will fly at least one more jet over Estonia in 2025? 38%.
Conditional on Russia flying at least one more jet over Estonia in 2025, what is the chance that it will be downed by Estonian or NATO forces? 13% (10% to 20%)
What is the chance that another late-night comedian in the US will lose his show for at least one month in 2025? 19% (12% to 30%)
Overall, the combination of continued violations of NATO airspace, the FCC exerting pressure on a network to fire a comedian, and the new AI generated virus, is enough to move our alert status to yellow (🟡), denoting our impression of increased risk and a pointer to our reserve team to pay more attention to this week’s events.
Executive summary for this week’s global risks roundup: