I also frankly don’t think they’re necessarily as interested at making speedy decisions based on county level polls, which is exactly the sort of real time stats checking you’d expect prediction market enthsiasts to be great at
(obviously trad media does report on county level polls and ultimately use them to decide if they’re happy to call a race, but they don’t have much incentive to be first and they’re tracking and checking a lot of other stuff like politico commentary and rumours and relevance of human interest stories and silly voxpops)
Throw in the fact that early counts are sometimes skewed in favour of another candidate which changes around as later voters or postal votes or ballot boxes from further out districts within a county get tallied up. This varies according to jurisdiction rules and demographics and voting trends, and it’s possible serious Poly Market betters were extremely clued up on them. But this time around, they’d have been just as right about state level outcomes if much of the money moved on the relatively naive assumption that you couldn’t expect any late swings, and not factoring in that possibility would be bad calibration.
I also frankly don’t think they’re necessarily as interested at making speedy decisions based on county level polls, which is exactly the sort of real time stats checking you’d expect prediction market enthsiasts to be great at
(obviously trad media does report on county level polls and ultimately use them to decide if they’re happy to call a race, but they don’t have much incentive to be first and they’re tracking and checking a lot of other stuff like politico commentary and rumours and relevance of human interest stories and silly voxpops)
Throw in the fact that early counts are sometimes skewed in favour of another candidate which changes around as later voters or postal votes or ballot boxes from further out districts within a county get tallied up. This varies according to jurisdiction rules and demographics and voting trends, and it’s possible serious Poly Market betters were extremely clued up on them. But this time around, they’d have been just as right about state level outcomes if much of the money moved on the relatively naive assumption that you couldn’t expect any late swings, and not factoring in that possibility would be bad calibration.