Here is a reading list I made for a new hire at Sentinel. I think it does a good job at capturing the promise, need, yet limitations of forecasting which I’ve found over the last few years. Suggestions of items to add welcome.
From our writtings:
How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk?
Global Risks Weekly Roundup, a few weekly editions
Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran
Our WIP fundraiser
Fundaments of Probability Theory
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, by E.T. Jaynes, particularly the first two or three chapters on probability as a subjective expectation.
Interpretations of Probability, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Probability in Practice
Superforecasting, Tetlock et. al.
How to Measure Anything*, Douglas W. Hubbard
Introduction to Fermi estimates
Squiggle, SquiggleHub
Limits of Probability Theory
To Explain the World, Steven Weinberg (history of science)
The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
Memo on the grain of truth problem
Metarationality, David Chapman
A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
Existential risk
The Precipice, Toby Ord
There is No Antimemetics Division, qntm
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis, Nick Bostrom
Here is a reading list I made for a new hire at Sentinel. I think it does a good job at capturing the promise, need, yet limitations of forecasting which I’ve found over the last few years. Suggestions of items to add welcome.
From our writtings:
How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk?
Global Risks Weekly Roundup, a few weekly editions
Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran
Our WIP fundraiser
Fundaments of Probability Theory
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, by E.T. Jaynes, particularly the first two or three chapters on probability as a subjective expectation.
Interpretations of Probability, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Probability in Practice
Superforecasting, Tetlock et. al.
How to Measure Anything*, Douglas W. Hubbard
Introduction to Fermi estimates
Squiggle, SquiggleHub
Limits of Probability Theory
To Explain the World, Steven Weinberg (history of science)
The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
Memo on the grain of truth problem
Metarationality, David Chapman
A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting
Existential risk
The Precipice, Toby Ord
There is No Antimemetics Division, qntm
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis, Nick Bostrom