Have you researched Citizens’ Climate Lobby? They’re a grassroots organization advocating carbon fee-and-dividend policy, mostly in the US. All credible studies I’ve seen indicate that we cannot reach our climate goals without carbon pricing; for example, this study finds that a carbon tax starting at $15 per ton would more than double the emissions reductions of the Build Back Better Act.
Polls suggest that returning carbon tax revenue as a dividend increases its popularity, though carbon pricing polls strongly net-positive either way: about +36 net favorability since 2020.
Research from myself and others also finds that a carbon dividend would substantially reduce poverty; this wouldn’t be a major shift from an EA perspective in the US, but if the policy spills over to developing countries, it could meaningfully relieve suffering a la GiveDirectly.
Disclaimer: I’ve volunteered with Citizens’ Climate Lobby since 2018 and am currently a volunteer chapter leader for them.
Hi Max, thanks for your comment. We quickly looked into CCL in 2020, and wrote up a “shallow dive” here. While we support the carbon tax push of CCL in theory, our assessment is that there is currently no clear pathway to passage of such a provision as it’s not supported by either party. We therefore decided not to pursue further research into CCL at that point, but are open to revisiting them in the future.
I don’t agree that a carbon pricing is the only way to reach our climate goals- my view is that reductions can alternatively be reached through regulations, and this is a more realistic path forward given political headwinds in the US. At least this seems to be the case for the foreseeable future.
Every other developed country has priced carbon. Only Australia has revoked it. Taking an outside view, this suggests pricing carbon in the US is tractable; the absence of it will also create clearer trade tensions as the EU starts enforcing its border adjustment.
What studies find that regulations without carbon pricing can reach our climate goals? The only one I’ve seen is Rhodium (2021), which requires an unrealistic coordination of many unprecedented climate policies at the congressional, executive, state, and corporate levels (pp. 16-18). This policy suite far exceeds BBB and regulations from Obama and Biden, which are already on shaky ground given the Supreme Court’s questioning the EPA’s authority to regulate GHGs. That report also includes a more optimistic baseline than others, and still only gets to 45-51%. Many other reports, including from Rhodium, show that carbon pricing makes these goals straightforward to meet.
Sorry, looks like our write-up of CCL didn’t make it into that document. Sorry for the wrong info. I’m going to stick with my opinion there there is no viable path towards carbon pricing in the near term in the US, and also that carbon pricing in practice has not been a very effective lever for reducing GHGs. I’d be happy to change my mind on either of these points in the future. I like this article as a nice argument to be skeptical on carbon prices: https://bostonreview.net/articles/leah-c-stokes-matto-mildenberger-tk/
Have you researched Citizens’ Climate Lobby? They’re a grassroots organization advocating carbon fee-and-dividend policy, mostly in the US. All credible studies I’ve seen indicate that we cannot reach our climate goals without carbon pricing; for example, this study finds that a carbon tax starting at $15 per ton would more than double the emissions reductions of the Build Back Better Act.
Polls suggest that returning carbon tax revenue as a dividend increases its popularity, though carbon pricing polls strongly net-positive either way: about +36 net favorability since 2020.
Research from myself and others also finds that a carbon dividend would substantially reduce poverty; this wouldn’t be a major shift from an EA perspective in the US, but if the policy spills over to developing countries, it could meaningfully relieve suffering a la GiveDirectly.
Disclaimer: I’ve volunteered with Citizens’ Climate Lobby since 2018 and am currently a volunteer chapter leader for them.
Hi Max, thanks for your comment. We quickly looked into CCL in 2020, and wrote up a “shallow dive” here. While we support the carbon tax push of CCL in theory, our assessment is that there is currently no clear pathway to passage of such a provision as it’s not supported by either party. We therefore decided not to pursue further research into CCL at that point, but are open to revisiting them in the future.
I don’t agree that a carbon pricing is the only way to reach our climate goals- my view is that reductions can alternatively be reached through regulations, and this is a more realistic path forward given political headwinds in the US. At least this seems to be the case for the foreseeable future.
That report doesn’t include CCL.
Democrats do support a carbon tax:
Democrats almost passed carbon pricing in 2009
12 US states price carbon (almost all run by Democrats)
All Democratic senators, with the possible exception of Manchin, support a carbon tax in BBB, and Romney also supports a carbon tax (so it could be one of multiple reconciliation bills)
The House Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act has 93 Democratic cosponsors
The Senate Save our Future Act has 9 Democratic cosponsors
Every other developed country has priced carbon. Only Australia has revoked it. Taking an outside view, this suggests pricing carbon in the US is tractable; the absence of it will also create clearer trade tensions as the EU starts enforcing its border adjustment.
What studies find that regulations without carbon pricing can reach our climate goals? The only one I’ve seen is Rhodium (2021), which requires an unrealistic coordination of many unprecedented climate policies at the congressional, executive, state, and corporate levels (pp. 16-18). This policy suite far exceeds BBB and regulations from Obama and Biden, which are already on shaky ground given the Supreme Court’s questioning the EPA’s authority to regulate GHGs. That report also includes a more optimistic baseline than others, and still only gets to 45-51%. Many other reports, including from Rhodium, show that carbon pricing makes these goals straightforward to meet.
Sorry, looks like our write-up of CCL didn’t make it into that document. Sorry for the wrong info. I’m going to stick with my opinion there there is no viable path towards carbon pricing in the near term in the US, and also that carbon pricing in practice has not been a very effective lever for reducing GHGs. I’d be happy to change my mind on either of these points in the future. I like this article as a nice argument to be skeptical on carbon prices: https://bostonreview.net/articles/leah-c-stokes-matto-mildenberger-tk/