If he says that he might pay them if he considers it to be sufficiently emotionally difficult for them, it still has the same incentive effects. If anything, an uncertain reward is more motivating and distorting than a certain one.
Especially since it seems likely that Alice tends to tell falsehoods when it will get her money. See here and here. Also, on priors, one of the most common reasons to lie is to get money.
Sorry I wasn’t clear. I mean that I haven’t seen him confirm publicly that he told them that he will or might pay them. The place you linked just talks about his draft plan of what he was thinking of doing (offering money). If he didn’t offer money to them, and they had no other indirect indication (until the process was over) that he was going to give them money, then there would be very little distortionary effect.
Oh, you’re right! I misread. I’ll update my comment to be more accurate.
Although I do think it’s decent odds that if he said that his plan was to discuss whistleblowing fees with them then, that he probably did. But it is much weaker evidence than I originally thought and conveyed.
If he says that he might pay them if he considers it to be sufficiently emotionally difficult for them, it still has the same incentive effects. If anything, an uncertain reward is more motivating and distorting than a certain one.
Especially since it seems likely that Alice tends to tell falsehoods when it will get her money. See here and here. Also, on priors, one of the most common reasons to lie is to get money.
Sorry I wasn’t clear. I mean that I haven’t seen him confirm publicly that he told them that he will or might pay them. The place you linked just talks about his draft plan of what he was thinking of doing (offering money). If he didn’t offer money to them, and they had no other indirect indication (until the process was over) that he was going to give them money, then there would be very little distortionary effect.
Oh, you’re right! I misread. I’ll update my comment to be more accurate.
Although I do think it’s decent odds that if he said that his plan was to discuss whistleblowing fees with them then, that he probably did. But it is much weaker evidence than I originally thought and conveyed.