I agree with you about the bad argumentation tactics of Situational Awareness, but not about the object level. That is, I think Leopold’s arguments are both bad, and false. I’d be interested in talking more about why they’re false, and I’m also curious about why you think they’re true.
I think some were false. For example, I don’t get the stuff about mini-drones undermining nuclear deterrence, as size will constrain your batteries enough that you won’t be able to do much of anything useful. Maybe I’m missing something (modulo nanotech).
I think it’s very plausible scaling holds up, it’s plausible AGI becomes a natsec matter, it’s plausible it will affect nuclear deterrence (via other means), for example.
I agree with you about the bad argumentation tactics of Situational Awareness, but not about the object level. That is, I think Leopold’s arguments are both bad, and false. I’d be interested in talking more about why they’re false, and I’m also curious about why you think they’re true.
I think some were false. For example, I don’t get the stuff about mini-drones undermining nuclear deterrence, as size will constrain your batteries enough that you won’t be able to do much of anything useful. Maybe I’m missing something (modulo nanotech).
I think it’s very plausible scaling holds up, it’s plausible AGI becomes a natsec matter, it’s plausible it will affect nuclear deterrence (via other means), for example.
What do you disagree with?